tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-72587718694413283032024-02-07T02:04:55.065+00:00Inflation in the UKInflation Monkey presents illuminating graphs and analysis on UK inflation and the historical prices of goods and commodities in inflation adjusted UK Pounds.InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-69556997852080820392014-05-18T15:31:00.001+01:002014-05-18T15:31:38.456+01:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/10838339/How-McLaren-is-applying-F1-know-how-to-toothpaste-and-medicine.html" target="_blank">How McLaren is applying F1 know-how to toothpaste and medicine</a> </h1>
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A great article about how pharmaceutical giant
<a href="http://www.gsk.com/" target="_blank">GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)</a> had the courage to look outside of their industry, to
find out methods to improve the efficiency of their business.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/%3Cblockquote%20class=%22twitter-tweet%22%20lang=%22en%22%3E%3Cp%3ENon%20%3Ca%20href=%22https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Auto&amp;src=hash%22%3E#Auto%3C/a%3E%20industries%20can%20learn%20from%20%3Ca%20href=%22https://twitter.com/search?q=%23F1&amp;src=hash%22%3E#F1%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20href=%22https://twitter.com/search?q=%23tech&amp;src=hash%22%3E#tech%3C/a%3E%20&amp;%20knowledge.%20GlaxoSmithKline%20%20%3Ca%20href=%22https://twitter.com/search?q=%23gamechanger&amp;src=hash%22%3E#gamechanger%3C/a%3E%20was%20knowledge%20from%20%3Ca%20href=%22https://twitter.com/search?q=%23pitstops&amp;src=hash%22%3E#pitstops%3C/a%3E%20%3Ca%20href=%22http://t.co/SYYVRHMA3P%22%3Ehttp://t.co/SYYVRHMA3P%3C/a%3E%3C/p%3E&mdash;%20Inflation%20Monkey%20(@InflationMonkey)%20%3Ca%20href=%22https://twitter.com/InflationMonkey" target="_blank">To most people it never would have crossed their minds that a Mclaren, a Formula One Team had knowledge and expertise that could benefit a pharmaceutical company</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span> </div>
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McLaren’s know-how from their fast and reputable pit lane
changes helped GlaxoSmithKline in improving their efficiency by orders of magnitude.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>McLaren’s “pit change” expertise was to
improve the swapping over production lines for the different toothpastes GlaxoSmithKline
produce.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This collaboration resulted in GlaxoSmithKline
producing an extra 6.7 million tubes of toothpaste creating more than £100m in
value in just one year. </div>
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Great demonstration of what completely different industries can
learn from each other. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If only the rest
of British industry could be less narrow minded about what thinks I could learn
from other industries.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unfortunately most
are too arrogant and run by those who can’t see that idea’s from outside their immediate
peers could have having any relevance or benefit to them. </div>
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InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-59196557674381825182013-01-05T13:04:00.001+00:002013-07-07T19:47:04.897+01:00The Average Joe’s Guide to the US Fiscal Cliff<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<h2 class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">The Fiscal
Cliff Explanation for Non-Economist and Politicians</span></h2>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">This puts things about Fiscal Cliff, the </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">present economic situation <span style="font-size: small;">and the </span>size of </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">United States</span></span> <span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Federal</span> <span style="font-size: small;">Government</span> budget & debt </span>into a much better perspective.....(I wonder about
the rest of <span style="font-size: small;">the world</span> too!)</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<h3 class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Lesson # 1:</span></span></h3>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">* U.S. Tax revenue: $ 2,170,000,000,000</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">* Fed budget: $ 3,820,000,000,000</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">* New debt: $ 1,650,000,000,000</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">* National debt: $ 14,271,000,000,000</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">* Recent budget cuts: $ 38,500,000,000</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Let's now remove 8 zeros and pretend it's a household
budget:</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">* Annual family income: $ 21,700</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">* Money the family spent: $ 38,200</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">* New debt on the credit card: $ 16,500</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">* Outstanding balance on the credit card: $ 142,710</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">* Total budget cuts so far: $ 38.50</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Got It ?????</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">OK now,</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<h3 class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Lesson # 2:</span></span></h3>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Here's another way to look at the Debt Ceiling:</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Let's say, You come home from work and find</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">there has been a sewer backup in your neighborhood....</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">and your home has sewage all the way up to your ceilings.</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">What do you think you should do ......</span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Raise the ceilings, or remove the shit? <i>(code for stop spending more than your income!)</i></span></span></div>
</blockquote>
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</div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">This was from
a joke a friend sent me the other day and as history demonstrates the best
satire is always very close to the truth. </span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br />
Written by <a href="http://inflationmonkey.blogspot.co.uk/p/about-inflation-monkey.html" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey</a>. <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" target="_blank">Join on Google+</a></span><br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-54427217486747309792013-01-02T09:57:00.000+00:002013-07-07T19:56:56.455+01:00Nickel Price: More Expensive Than in the 1950’s and 1960’s<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Nickel is
used in many industrial applications and sectors, from a corrosion resisting
additive in steel to elements in batteries and catalyst for hydrogenation. This
makes it an important commodity to examine its historic price and inflation adjusted
price. </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">
</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The annual average copper price data since 1900 to
2010 came from the <a href="http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/" target="_blank">US Geological Survey</a>. The historical UK
Pound to US Dollar exchange rate data came from Lawrence H. Officer,
"Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate From 1791", MeasuringWorth, 2011 at
<a href="http://www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/">www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/</a>. The prices were
adjusted for inflation by converting the nominal price into the equivalent in
2011 US Dollars and 2011 GP Pounds Stirling.
The US
inflation data came from the <a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/community_education/teacher/calc/hist1800.cfm" target="_blank">historical CPI from the US Department of Labor</a>. For the UK inflation
the data came from Grahame Allen (2011) "<a href="http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/RP12-31" target="_blank">Inflation: the Value of the Pound1750-2011</a>" Economic Policy and Statistics Section, Research Paper 12/31,
House of Commons Library, UK. </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">From this you
get the following results shown in the graph below.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span></span>
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-left: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuUbmWE1JwfxxusjL-VNNcTVUd7AutJYBG5R4HyOjdJ5fyphSPb5UfrJvy6LoOnEM5FhZzoB-FnW4ULR-8rhPbWj5LOH_VkRheAd6sOt5ndm83ABZ6lKYEqUOxIuU5S-8nD5K7ki4pYLHA/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Nickel+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart showing the historical price and the inflation adjusted nickel price since 1900 to 2010 in US Dollars and Pounds Sterling" border="0" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuUbmWE1JwfxxusjL-VNNcTVUd7AutJYBG5R4HyOjdJ5fyphSPb5UfrJvy6LoOnEM5FhZzoB-FnW4ULR-8rhPbWj5LOH_VkRheAd6sOt5ndm83ABZ6lKYEqUOxIuU5S-8nD5K7ki4pYLHA/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Nickel+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" title="Chart of the Annual Average and Inflation Adjusted Nickel Price since 1900 in US Dollars and UK Pounds Sterling" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The doted
lines are the unadjusted nominal annual average nickel price, and the sold
lines are the inflation adjusted nickel price.
The first feature that becomes obvious is that the unadjusted nickel price
was at its lowest in the in 1924 in both US Dollars and Pounds Sterling at
approximately $661 and £150 per a metric tonne respectively. Furthermore before 2007 the nominal price
peak occurred in 1988 to 1989 in both US Dollars and UK Pounds at approximately
$14,000 and £8,000 per a metric tonne respectively. </span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">However when
you examine the inflation adjusted nickel price, you notice that its lowest
prices occurred in 1998 in both US Dollars and UK Pounds at approximately $6,400
and £3,965 per metric tonne. The closed
the inflation adjusted price came to those lows in both currencies, occurred in
the mid 1920’s, late 1940’s and 1985. The
highest inflation adjusted price happened in 2007 in US Dollars and Pounds
Sterling at $44,450 and £20,968 respectively. </span></span></div>
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</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The historic
inflation adjusted nickel prices in US Dollars and UK Pounds can be more easily
seen in the chart below, which only shows the inflation adjusted price on a
linear axis (non logarithmic, unlike the first chart). </span></span></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-left: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbRvBXGmJSqrl3XQDhX3JMmmiTbOyTAWN9KJTAnd8q60QiM9IrJmy5WSLrq-MbmSZdN2YoZ617b-98GIrhuG60i6uLW56weMfDfO1uW28GZFd8-cuIgNcNti_9OxPFqwiRrR-cuVBuVAii/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Nickel+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds+2v.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart showing the historic inflation adjusted nickel price since 1900 to 2010 in US Dollars and UK Pounds" border="0" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbRvBXGmJSqrl3XQDhX3JMmmiTbOyTAWN9KJTAnd8q60QiM9IrJmy5WSLrq-MbmSZdN2YoZ617b-98GIrhuG60i6uLW56weMfDfO1uW28GZFd8-cuIgNcNti_9OxPFqwiRrR-cuVBuVAii/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Nickel+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds+2v.jpg" title="Chart of the Inflation Adjusted Nickel Price since 1900 in US Dollars and UK Pounds" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">As it came
bee seen the general trend in the inflation adjusted nickel prices showed a steady
decrease from 1900 until the early 1920’s, were upon it stayed fairly constant until
it decreases slightly to reach one of its lowest prices in the late 1940’s. From then it rose back to the average price seen
the 1920’s and remained relatively stable until the late 1960’s. In the late 1960’s the inflation adjusted
price rose rapidly by over 30% and fluctuated around this new prices for much
of the 1970’s. In the late 1970’s and
early 1980’s the price consistently dropped until it bottomed in 1986 at an
inflation adjusted price close to that in the late 1940’s.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">In the late
1980’s the nickel price exploded in just a few years to reach equal the inflation
adjusted high not seen since the early part of the 20<sup>th</sup> century at $26,300
in US Dollars. In UK Pounds Sterling the
price peak in the 1980’s only reached the inflation adjusted price seen the
1970’s at £17,000, because of the strength of the Pound relative to the Dollar.
In both US Dollars and Pounds Sterling
the nickel price dropped back in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. In the late 200’s the price rocked as it did
in the mid 1980’s to reach an all-time inflation adjusted price of $40,500 and
£21,000. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Using the
price in 1900 as a baseline the inflation adjusted nickel price in UK Pounds
and US Dollars was indexed. This allows
the examination of the relative price changes during this historical period of
time more easily and is shown below.</span></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG99-VreF-SH1rK0mifWYMkd4uU-aG9dIgblL7EFJq6hDsyWeB-fH5hxa1zAxBBikVCw9F68LDbcEed2geeaFF7YmMFfWL1yErs_Vn4JgfjzSe-mmr4wIeugghrCZlPM038fxLQSGt2OMQ/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Nickel+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Graph showing the historical inflation adjusted nickel price since 1900 in US Dollars and GB Pounds. The price has been indexed to that in 1900 and shows that the price in 2010 was approximately 75% of the inflation adjusted price in 1900." border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG99-VreF-SH1rK0mifWYMkd4uU-aG9dIgblL7EFJq6hDsyWeB-fH5hxa1zAxBBikVCw9F68LDbcEed2geeaFF7YmMFfWL1yErs_Vn4JgfjzSe-mmr4wIeugghrCZlPM038fxLQSGt2OMQ/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Nickel+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" title="Graph of the Historical Inflation Adjusted Nickel Price index to the Price in 1900, in US Dollars and GB Pounds" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<![endif]-->The indexed price
data clearly displays that the historic inflation adjusted nickel price has been
volatile and had not dropped like <a href="http://inflationmonkey.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/aluminium-metal-that-has-never-been-so.html" target="_blank">the inflation adjusted aluminium price</a> had
done.<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "Courier New",Courier,monospace;"><b> </b></span></span>By the late 1990’s
and early 2000s the nickel price dropped to between 30 to 40% of the price of
what it was in 1900. The all-time low occurred
in the late mid 1920’s, late 1940’s and mid 1980’s. The current nickel price by the beginning of
2011 is comparable to the inflation adjusted prices in the late 1970s, which is
slightly higher than the average since the beginning of the 20<sup>th</sup> century.
This is easier to see from the graph
below where the inflation adjusted price is indexed to that in 1971. </span></span></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-left: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeo3bM_RAUW-0gk9F9plKe6Vc2udPpCXZvdN_GHyulJP5KJf2q3ueIvxnkt_R0rBLGtO0ouw-zYKLB3MUFN3fmZsTIvVLmBBux1YVUZcQXawDjJ2EF0xDmkMmckKpc7V85sVKV6kFDT3Ng/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Nickel+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index+2v.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart showing the historical inflation adjusted nickel price since 1900 in US Dollars and GB Pounds. The price has been indexed to that in 1971 and shows that the price in 2010 was approximately 20% higher than inflation adjusted price in 1971." border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeo3bM_RAUW-0gk9F9plKe6Vc2udPpCXZvdN_GHyulJP5KJf2q3ueIvxnkt_R0rBLGtO0ouw-zYKLB3MUFN3fmZsTIvVLmBBux1YVUZcQXawDjJ2EF0xDmkMmckKpc7V85sVKV6kFDT3Ng/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Nickel+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index+2v.jpg" title="Chart of the Historical Inflation Adjusted Nickel Price since 1900 in US Dollars and GB Pounds, Indexed to 191" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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</xml><![endif]--><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Historical Inflation
Adjusted Nickel Price since 1900 in US Dollars and GB Pounds, Indexed to 19<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">71</span></span></span></b></span><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">So from a
historical perspective once inflation has been accounted for<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: small;"><u>,</u></span></span> the price of nickel
is comparable to the peaks seen in the late 1970s. This begs the question, as nickel is used in
so many industries and industrial applications, does this means the developed
economies are due to repeat the economic difficulties that were experienced in
the 1970s? </span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Written by <a href="http://inflationmonkey.blogspot.co.uk/p/about-inflation-monkey.html" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey</a>. <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" target="_blank">Join on Google+</a></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
</div>
InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-32258855346210010762012-11-12T20:48:00.002+00:002013-07-07T19:59:42.480+01:00Titanium - Almost as Inexpensive as it has Ever Been<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Titanium is a metal used in a variety of industrial
application, from aerospace to marine, due to its high strength-to-weight ratio,
high corrosion resistance, fatigue resistance, and crack growth
resistance. So I decided to examine the long
term price history and inflation adjusted historic price of this industrially important
metal.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The annual average titanium price was estimated
from the <b><a href="http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/" target="_blank">price data for titanium sponge metal from 1941 to 2010</a></b> which came from
the US Geological Survey. The historical UK Pound to US Dollar exchange
rate data came from Lawrence H. Officer, "Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate From
1791", MeasuringWorth, 2011 at <a href="http://www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/" target="_blank">w<b>ww.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/</b></a>. The prices were adjusted for inflation by
converting the nominal price into the equivalent in 2011 US Dollars and 2011 GP
Pounds Stirling. The <b><a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/community_education/teacher/calc/hist1800.cfm" target="_blank">US inflation data</a></b> came from the historical CPI from the US Department of Labor. The UK inflation the data came from Grahame
Allen (2011) "<b><a href="http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/RP12-31" target="_blank">Inflation: the Value of the Pound 1750-2011</a></b>" Economic
Policy and Statistics Section, Research Paper 12/31, House of Commons Library,
UK. From this </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">you
get the following results shown in the<span style="font-size: small;"> chart</span> </span>below. </span></span></span><br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirgtaWd29UAAmcSViEaudD-dpCGLy4QzAr3g-aFTdVapy_YHwHWXmHDy7HKCQ4HfXtbxH3_Bm7ASUdop9NjfzG0pbUHZa6Pv4K4jbIR6rTGk8qkVEgQxU162gYrOb0aYIuTHVLSg2ny_U7/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Titanium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart showing the historical price and the inflation adjusted titanium price since 1941 to 2010 in US Dollars and Pounds Sterling" border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirgtaWd29UAAmcSViEaudD-dpCGLy4QzAr3g-aFTdVapy_YHwHWXmHDy7HKCQ4HfXtbxH3_Bm7ASUdop9NjfzG0pbUHZa6Pv4K4jbIR6rTGk8qkVEgQxU162gYrOb0aYIuTHVLSg2ny_U7/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Titanium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" title="Chart of the Annual Average and Inflation Adjusted Titanium Price since 1941 in US Dollars and UK Pounds Sterling" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The doted lines are the unadjusted nominal annual average titanium price, and the sold lines are the inflation adjusted titanium price. The first thing that becomes obvious is that the unadjusted titanium price was at its lowest in the in late 1961’s till the early 1970’s in both US Dollars and Pounds Sterling at approximately $1,040 and £2,900 per a metric tonne <span style="font-size: small;">respectively. Additionally the nominal price peak occurs in 1981 and 2006 at approximately $8,400 and £17,000 in 1981 and $11,000 and £23,000 in 2006 per a metric tonne respectively.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">However when
you examine the inflation adjusted titanium price, you notice that its lowest
prices occurred in 2003 in both US Dollars and UK Pounds Sterling at
approximately $5,500 and $9,000 per metric tonne<span style="font-size: small;"> respectably. The closest
the inflation adjusted price came to those lows in both currencies, occurred in
1992 and 2010 approximately at $7,500 and £13,200 respectively.
The inflation adjusted titanium price experienced a constant fall until the
early 1960’s whereupon it stabilised<span style="font-size: small;"> <span style="font-size: small;">until</span> the late 1970's</span>.
This</span> can be more easily seen in the chart below which only shows the inflation
adjusted price on a linear axis (non logarithmic, unlike the first chart). </span></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPxP_hxuyInFjnCejTCgibmpuYVt6WINaiFNj-6-hkEO3ybsrSIL3s_pUDKdofThxX9ZbjmBP13tZTCC2xOv0BHZUd49-WqK3XKT-O4tLFKCAgqr1u3As97pDJtoQJ00rzdv3SifQrWS7R/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Titanium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart showing the historic inflation adjusted titanium price since 1941 to 2010 in US Dollars and UK Pounds" border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPxP_hxuyInFjnCejTCgibmpuYVt6WINaiFNj-6-hkEO3ybsrSIL3s_pUDKdofThxX9ZbjmBP13tZTCC2xOv0BHZUd49-WqK3XKT-O4tLFKCAgqr1u3As97pDJtoQJ00rzdv3SifQrWS7R/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Titanium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+2.jpg" title="Chart of the Inflation Adjusted Titanium Price since 1941 in US Dollars and UK Pounds" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">As it came
be seen the general trend in the inflation adjusted prices was a steady decrees
until the 1960’s <span style="font-size: small;">where<span style="font-size: small;"> i</span></span>t stayed relatively constant<span style="font-size: small;"> (by historic <span style="font-size: small;">standards<span style="font-size: small;">)</span></span></span> until the present day. Even though there was a rapid increase in the
real price in the late 1970’<span style="font-size: small;">s,</span> which peaked in the early 1980’s, it was nowhere
near the inflation adjusted price before the late 1950’s.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Using the
price in 1941 as a baseline, the inflation adjusted titanium price in UK Pounds
and US Dollars was indexed. This clearly
shows how much the real price of titanium has dropped since the 1940’s. By the bottom in the price, which <span style="font-size: small;">occurred</span> in 2003, it was approximately
4.88% of the price in 1941. Even with
the recent rally in the inflation adjusted price, by 2010 the price was still
only just over 6% of that in 1941.</span></span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBo-S1xiQudc6mpVPKST7CZ6d59oHnzgR6q2j8qv7ZYJ2sS6Caf-cCHbb21VpZiNhNUQelzg1quxu4J3nqvKy8tK0PjrdSE7e_WjmMdkIIuiGztwZGClNbuyl6B8puTGt7tM432j5PuTfH/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Titanium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Graph showing the historical inflation adjusted titanium price since 1941 in US Dollars and GB Pounds. The price has been indexed to that in 1941 and shows that the price in 2010 was approximately 6% of the inflation adjusted price in 1941." border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBo-S1xiQudc6mpVPKST7CZ6d59oHnzgR6q2j8qv7ZYJ2sS6Caf-cCHbb21VpZiNhNUQelzg1quxu4J3nqvKy8tK0PjrdSE7e_WjmMdkIIuiGztwZGClNbuyl6B8puTGt7tM432j5PuTfH/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Titanium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" title="Graph of the Historical Inflation Adjusted Titanium Price index to the Price in 1941, in US Dollars and GB Pounds" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Even the relative price changes since the 1970’s
show that by 2010 the inflation adjusted titanium price is still relatively cheap
since that time. This can be easily seen
in the chart below, were the inflation adjusted titanium a price was index to
that from 1975. The price in 2010 was just
under 40% of the real price in 1975<span style="font-size: small;"> and <span style="font-size: small;">reached a <span style="font-size: small;">maximum in 1981 of twice <span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">compared</span> to 1975. </span></span> </span></span></span></span><br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-left: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvxSnO7gGdICAxFM49blhiSJHN0GXpx2y3Y038zYS_e8PVIAipVJc_B08e5wnT6hjPehIc80SxKO5QjD4TMcZ7RjMxV7gwQdg28OSwTqbVoenytZk9m60ElrQkpzpPzIu6HslCdCxyOLDW/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Titanium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index+2v.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart showing the Historical Inflation Adjusted Titanium Price since 1941 in US Dollars and GB Pounds. The price has been indexed to that in 1975 and shows that the price in 2010 was approximately 40% of the inflation adjusted price in 1975." border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvxSnO7gGdICAxFM49blhiSJHN0GXpx2y3Y038zYS_e8PVIAipVJc_B08e5wnT6hjPehIc80SxKO5QjD4TMcZ7RjMxV7gwQdg28OSwTqbVoenytZk9m60ElrQkpzpPzIu6HslCdCxyOLDW/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Titanium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index+2v.jpg" title="Chart of the Historical Inflation Adjusted Titanium Price since 1941 in US Dollars and GB Pounds, Indexed to 1975" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">So from a historical perspective, once inflation
has been accounted for the price of titanium is almost as cheap as it has been in
the last eighty years. Even compared to the
real inflation adjusted prices in the 1970’s the price by 2010 is below the historic average
of that period.</span></span></div>
</div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Written by <a href="http://inflationmonkey.blogspot.co.uk/p/about-inflation-monkey.html" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey</a>. <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" target="_blank">Join on Google+</a></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span></span></div>
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InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-70264680081424243882012-10-26T20:50:00.001+01:002012-10-26T20:50:32.844+01:00Britain’s Biggest Economic Disadvantage - Their Housing Market - MoneyWeek<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/uk/property-market-britains-biggest-economic-disadvantage-61200#.UIrZpX5E2B8.blogger">Britain’s Housing Market Has Left The Economy Paralysed</a></h2>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Here is a very interesting article from <b><a href="http://www.moneyweek.co.uk/" target="_blank">Money Week Magazine</a></b>, regarding the UK housing market and its risk to kill the merger GDP growth even more than their Olympic-sized Government debit levels. With rapidly slowing global growth (in both the developed and developing world) our politicians and central bankers seem to be at a loss as to how to deal with it. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br />Sir Mervyn King (Governer of the BoE) reckons that the basic problem is the banks are still sitting on too much bad
debt. The debt needs its value written down (or
written off) and the banks then need to be patched up (again). All that needs to
happen before banks are willing to lend again. The tr ouble is, the “significant writing down of asset values” that King refers to, would involve allowing house prices
to fall. In Britain, house prices are the single most important
economic indicator, politically speaking. When house prices are falling,
governments lose elections. It’s why public policy in the UK is to keep the property market from collapsing. </span></span>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">So unless there is an external factor which forces the politicians hands don't expect the policy to change. It funny but one of the reasons Britain did well after it fell out of the fixed exchange rate mechanism (ERM) was that while it was in it the politicians hands were prevented from printing money to provide a quick economic/political fix. Resulting in them having to implement political difficult and painful (to vested interest groups) labour market reform which provided a long term improvement to employment and GDP growth, as explained by the <b><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/9545098/Black-Wednesday-I-felt-like-a-surgeon-realising-the-patient-was-dead.html" target="_blank">former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont in an interview in the Daily Telegraph Newspaper on the 20th anniversary of Black Wednesday, </a></b><b><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/9545098/Black-Wednesday-I-felt-like-a-surgeon-realising-the-patient-was-dead.html" target="_blank">Britain’s exit from the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM)</a></b>. <span class="caption"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">It reminds me of an old quotation from the former UK Prime Minister <b>Sir Winston </b><b>Churchill</b>:</span></span> <br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else" (<i>just replace </i><i>Americans with politicians)</i> </span></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Food for thought isn't it?</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>Click here is <span>see <b><a href="http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/uk/property-market-britains-biggest-economic-disadvantage-61200" target="_blank">Moneyweek - Britain’s biggest economic disadvantage - our property market </a></b><span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-69519975408983532722012-10-24T19:56:00.003+01:002012-10-24T19:56:32.294+01:00Average Income for Pensioners Has Never Been Better! (Statically at Least)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Here is a very interesting chart from the <b><a href="http://www.ercouncil.org/" target="_blank">Economic Research Council</a></b> Weekly Digest Chart of the Week, which was on <span style="color: #7a264c;">the <b><a href="http://ymlp.com/zN0o0k" target="_blank">Average Income for Pensioners</a></b></span>. A recant report from the ONS showed how pensioners' net income has changed over the past ten years and it is largely good news for pensioners as they received on average 27% increase in their real income. However </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-size: small; line-height: 16px;">things aren't all <span style="font-size: small;">rosary,</span></span><span style="font-size: small;"> when you investigate the number in detail thee is still a large amount of <span style="font-size: small;">inequalities still exist<span style="font-size: small;">. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Click here is <span style="font-size: small;">see the <b><a href="http://ymlp.com/zN0o0k" target="_blank">Average Net Income <span style="font-size: small;">D</span>istribution of UK </a></b><span style="font-size: small;"><b><a href="http://ymlp.com/zN0o0k" target="_blank">Pensioners</a></b>.</span></span></span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
</div>
InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-91016949235283030012012-08-31T20:35:00.001+01:002012-08-31T20:54:54.467+01:00Expect UK house prices to fall as banks pull back from the property market - MoneyWeek<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: large;">The Prospects for the UK Housing Market Don't Look Promising!</span></h2>
<span style="font-size: small;">The most important drivers of the UK property market is borrowers’ access to credit. Until the resent credit crunch, almost everyone had forgotten about this and thought is was just aspirational and want that drove it.</span></div>
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">So with this in mind how is the </span><span style="font-size: small;"> UK property market going to perform in the next few years. statistics - <b><a href="http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/uk/uk-house-prices-to-fall-as-banks-abandon-property-market-60400" target="_blank">Banks are pulling back from property</a></b> - expect prices to fall. </span></div>
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;">
</div>
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;"> </span></div>
</div>
InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-85401203775522288662012-08-24T18:29:00.001+01:002012-08-26T21:38:46.946+01:00Macro Man: Life's Little Luxuries<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<h2 class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: large;">The Italian Government Takes
No Prisoners In Its War On Tax Evaders</span></h2>
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</h3>
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<span style="font-size: small;">If you are in any doubt
about the scale of the super yacht exodus accros the Club Med Countries have a
quick look at this report on empty marinas across Italy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Meanwhile who’d want a new Ferrari after last
year’s campaign against tax evaders – which involved tax inspectors raiding the
owners of luxury cars in smart ski resorts and visiting Ferrari-owner events to
check the tax returns of every single driver? According to the blogging
hedge fund manager at <b><a href="http://www.macro-man.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">www.macro-man.blogspot.com</a></b> the “persecution of Ferrari owners” has become
so severe that they are selling them in their thousands. You can now pick one
up for the “price of a new VW Polo”</span><span style="font-size: small;">.</span></div>
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">This is not only bad for
Ferrari but all Luxury Car companies, not only are sales being hit by general
austerity and shocking enforcement of the law, but global second hand prices
are likely to be hit by the new exodus of cars from Italy. “This is going to be “a vicious value
collapse” says Macro Man.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">Will this mean people will
be turning against ostentatious wealth, and luxury brands associated with it? </span><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
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InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-80718616113662517412012-05-27T16:32:00.001+01:002013-07-07T20:24:42.125+01:00Copper Price is as Expensive as it was in the 1970s – Inflation Adjusted Historical Copper Price since 1900 in Pounds Sterling and US Dollars<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;">Copper Price Today is as Expensive as it was in the 1970s Once Accounting for Inflation </span></h2>
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Copper in a common metal which as been used since ancient times. Due to its very good electrical and thermal conductivity it used in a very wide range of industrial applications from wires cables to sea water corrosion resistant bronzes used to make marine propellers. Because of this it is often refereed to as one if the bellwether industrial commodities, which are used to trend the health of global industrial production. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Over the last couple of years, I have repeatedly come across comments that copper has never been this expensive and that this will push up the price of consumer goods or cause industrial production to slow or contract. There are <span style="font-family: Arial;">some reviews of the copper market and price such<br />
as the following:</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">"<a href="http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/industrial-metals/metals-copper-market-turns-bearish-22200" target="_blank">What to do as Dr Copper turns bearish</a>"</span> </span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;">"<span style="font-family: Arial;"><a href="http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34026.html" target="_blank">The Copper Yuan Carry Trade</a>"</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">"</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"><a href="http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34860.html" target="_blank">Copper and Global Stock Markets Rollover</a>"</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">"</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"><a href="http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33155.html" target="_blank">Copper Price Forecast, The Fall of The ChineseMiracle 2012</a>"</span></span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">However these don’t usually cover the long term price history or adjusted to account for inflation, so I thought that I would investigate.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">The <a href="http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/" target="_blank">annual average copper price data since 1900 to2010 came from the USGeological Survey</a>. The data for 2011 and the early part of 2012 came from the World Bank. In both cases <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">the price data is based on the average price of Grade A cooper traded on the </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">London Metals Exchange (LME). </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The historical UK Pound to US Dollar exchange </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">rate data came from Lawrence H. Officer, </span>"<a href="http://www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/" target="_blank">Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate From1791</a>", MeasuringWorth, 2011 at <a href="http://www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/">www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/</a>. </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">The prices were adjusted for inflation by converting the nominal price into the equivalent in 2011 US Dollars and 2011 GP Pounds Stirling. The US inflation data came from <a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/community_education/teacher/calc/hist1800.cfm" target="_blank">the historical CPI from the US Department of Labor</a>. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">For the UK inflation the data came from Dominic Webb (2006) "</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp2006/rp06-009.pdf" target="_blank">Inflation:the Value of the Pound 1750-2005</a>" Economic Policy and Statistics Section, Research Paper 06/09, House of Commons Library, UK</span><span style="font-size: small;">. </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: small;">From this you get the following results shown in the graph below</span>.</span></span></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLs1egPIB37See1iHnBk-gEG1frKjRtdNao8LTlCtc_epoGa1LK-FV0B440D-93GJRR0sap5OyabOzc7seBDFy2GhAPCyPNIS_zwIBpZPkZ6r1xLbsVIEkbQC0I88YdEzo1eoDwuTggTVo/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Copper+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart showing the historic price of copper and the inflation adjusted copper price since 1900 to 2011 in Pounds Sterling and Dollars" border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLs1egPIB37See1iHnBk-gEG1frKjRtdNao8LTlCtc_epoGa1LK-FV0B440D-93GJRR0sap5OyabOzc7seBDFy2GhAPCyPNIS_zwIBpZPkZ6r1xLbsVIEkbQC0I88YdEzo1eoDwuTggTVo/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Copper+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" title="Chart of the Historical Annual Average and Inflation Adjusted Copper Price since 1900 in US Dollars and UK Pounds" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Historical Annual Average and Inflation Adjusted<br />
Copper Price since 1900 in US Dollars and UK Pounds</b></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">The doted lines are the unadjusted nominal annual average copper price, and the sold lines are the inflation adjusted copper price. The first thing that becomes obvious is that the unadjusted copper price was at its lowest in the in 1932 in both US Dollars and Pounds Sterling at approximately $128 and £36 per a metric tonne respectively. Additionally before 2012 the nominal price peak occurred in 2011 in both US Dollars and UK Pounds at $8,823 and £51504 per a metric tonne respectively. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">However when you examine the inflation adjusted copper price, you notice that its lowest prices occurred in 2002 in US Dollars at $2,089 and in 1999 in UK Pounds at $1,465 per metric tonne. The closed the inflation adjusted price came to those lows in both currencies, occurred in 1932, 1945, and 1993. The highest inflation adjusted price happened in 1916 in US Dollars and Pounds Sterling at $12,962 and £9,383 respectively.</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The historic inflation adjusted copper prices in US Dollars and UK Pounds can be more easily seen in the chart below which only shows the inflation adjusted price on a linear axis (non logarithmic, unlike the first chart</span>).</span></span></span></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrbMkXQZ3PmZn7DAL3b2-TL8Wrkdbv0blKohNveJkJoWh3VcKJ0G9wjJalOPlSW-Fg4jgT0FH2_3Mp4NehqgBOcxE6GGOKQhSd0wAguTXwSEjEcvcI56v2fJ0ls_DFk1PFMV9gcvEVzDnR/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Copper+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+v2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Graph showing the Inflation Adjusted Copper Price since 1900 in US Dollars and Pounds Sterling" border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrbMkXQZ3PmZn7DAL3b2-TL8Wrkdbv0blKohNveJkJoWh3VcKJ0G9wjJalOPlSW-Fg4jgT0FH2_3Mp4NehqgBOcxE6GGOKQhSd0wAguTXwSEjEcvcI56v2fJ0ls_DFk1PFMV9gcvEVzDnR/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Copper+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+v2.jpg" title="Chart of the Inflation Adjusted Copper Price since 1900 in US Dollars and Pounds Sterling" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: small;">Inflation Adjusted Copper Price since 1900 in US<br />
Dollars and Pounds Sterling</span></b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"></span><br />
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<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">As it came bee seen the general trend in the inflation adjusted copper prices was a high volatility before the 1920s, were upon it experienced a sharp decrees by the early 1920s. Prices were relatively stable from the 1920s until the end of the 1940s, in competition to the price volatility see before the 1920s. During the 1950s there was a sharp rise to $7,662 and £6,775 in US Dollars and GB Pounds respective. The price dropped almost 50% by 1958 in both currencies, where upon it steadily increased to peak in 1970 and 1974 at a price similar to that in 1955.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">From the peak in 1974 the price steadily decreased to an all time inflation adjusted low by 2002 in US Dollars at $2,089 per metric tonne. In UK Pounds the all time inflation adjusted low occurred in 1999 at $1,465 per metric tonne and this was almost matched again in 2003 at £1,483. Since these lows the inflation adjusted copper price was increases rapidly to prices comparable to those seen in the 1970s.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Using the price in 1900 as a baseline the inflation adjusted copper price in UK Pounds and US Dollars was indexed. This allows the examination of the relative price changes during this historical period of time more easily and is shown below.</span></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA_dSr5R7vTD7PMQ1hJF59Ry6A5CaQP6Jso0mXAge89K-y2d3vv0ZnSyx-W_URZDxUceSCDP8RQB1wehy-R5LG6LYuhMqd6HwGz7SkXzcscOymoFbi6nVoIOiQQCHDIsDQPAbh8Uo-rSEn/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Copper+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Graph showing inflation adjusted copper price index to the price at 1900 equalling 100. m The graph clearly shows that the when inflation is accounted for the copper price in 2011 is simular to that in the mid 1950's and late 1960's." border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgA_dSr5R7vTD7PMQ1hJF59Ry6A5CaQP6Jso0mXAge89K-y2d3vv0ZnSyx-W_URZDxUceSCDP8RQB1wehy-R5LG6LYuhMqd6HwGz7SkXzcscOymoFbi6nVoIOiQQCHDIsDQPAbh8Uo-rSEn/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Copper+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" title="Chart of the Historical Inflation Adjusted Copper Price since 1900 in US Dollars and GB Pounds, Indexed to 1900" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: small;">Historical Inflation Adjusted Copper Price since<br />
1900 in US Dollars and GB Pounds, Indexed to 1900</span></b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"></span><br />
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<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">The indexed price data clearly displays that the historic inflation adjusted copper price has drop since the 1900s but not by any ware as much as the <a href="http://inflationmonkey.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/aluminium-metal-that-has-never-been-so.html" target="_blank">inflation adjusted aluminium price</a> had done. By the early 2000s the copper price bottomed at almost 20% of the price of what it was in 1900. This was slightly lower than the previous bottom in 1930. The current copper price by the beginning of 2012 is comparable to the inflation adjusted prices in the 1970s, which were slightly lower than the average in the years before the 1920s.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">So from a historical perspective once inflation has been accounted for the price of copper is comparable to the peaks seen in the 1970s. This begs the question, as copper is used as a bellwether the health of global industrial production, does this means the developed economies are due to repeat the economic difficulties that were experienced in the 1970s?</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Written by <a href="http://inflationmonkey.blogspot.co.uk/p/about-inflation-monkey.html" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey</a></span><span style="font-size: small;">. <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" target="_blank">Join on Google+</a></span><br />
<br /></div>
</div>
InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-69296129139217656182012-05-07T23:22:00.003+01:002013-07-07T20:25:00.925+01:00Aluminium the Metal that has Never been so Inexpensive – Inflation Adjusted Historical Aluminium Price since 1900 in Pounds Sterling and US Dollars<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<h2 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: small;"> The Metal that has Never been Cheep - Aluminium</span></h2>
<span style="font-size: small;">Aluminum is a silvery white metal used in a
wide verity of industrial application and in consumer products. It is the third most abundant element and the
most abundant metal, in the Earth's crust. Aluminum is a remarkable metal due to its low density and for its
ability to resist corrosion via passivation. Many of the structural components made from
aluminium and its alloys are vital to the aerospace industry and are important
in other areas of transportation and structural materials.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Aluminum forms strong chemical bonds with
oxygen. Compared to most other metals, it is difficult to extract from ore,
such as bauxite, due to the high reactivity of aluminum and the high melting
point of most of its ores. For example,
direct reduction with carbon, as is used to produce iron, is not chemically
possible because aluminum is a stronger reducing agent than carbon. Aluminium electrolysis with the Hall-Héroult
process consumes a lot of energy. Electric
power represents about 20% to 40% of the cost of producing aluminum, depending
on the location of the smelter. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">There are some </span><a href="http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3690.html" target="_blank">reviews of the aluminium market and price</a>, but these don’t usually
cover the long term price history or adjusted to account for inflation, so I
thought that I would investigate.</span></div>
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
</div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">The annual average <a href="http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/" target="_blank">aluminium price data came from the US Geological Survey</a> and it dates back to 1900. The historical UK Pound to
US Dollar exchange rate data came from Lawrence H. Officer, <a href="http://www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/" target="_blank">"Dollar-PoundExchange Rate From 1791," MeasuringWorth</a>, 2011 at <a href="http://www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/">www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/</a>. The prices were adjusted for
inflation by converting the nominal price into the equivalent in 2011 US
Dollars and 2011 GP Pounds Stirling. The
US
inflation data came from the <a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/community_education/teacher/calc/hist1800.cfm" target="_blank">historical CPI from the US Department of Labor</a>. For the UK inflation the data came from Dominic
Webb (2006) "<a href="http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp2006/rp06-009.pdf" target="_blank">Inflation: the Value of thePound 1750-2005</a>" Economic Policy and Statistics Section, Research Paper 06/09,
House of Commons Library, UK. From this you get the
following results shown in the graph below.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxvAbTiSw8i9lFtJaG_rK8ifly_o8uWWK0PjSMGZSiLn9g_ftjvtCEBUOuU4Tr7LD2UXvHPg71ujovgFSpuavj75kCAoHPaSqNN0JlQtqxmP-zNM47Q0Cv5PXN_Alg4U57HVmTIPZfSOLP/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Aluminium+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart showing the historic price of aluminium and the inflation adjusted aluminium price since 1900 to 2011 in Pounds Sterling and Dollars" border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxvAbTiSw8i9lFtJaG_rK8ifly_o8uWWK0PjSMGZSiLn9g_ftjvtCEBUOuU4Tr7LD2UXvHPg71ujovgFSpuavj75kCAoHPaSqNN0JlQtqxmP-zNM47Q0Cv5PXN_Alg4U57HVmTIPZfSOLP/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Aluminium+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" title="Chart of the Historical Annual Average and Inflation Adjusted Aluminum Price since 1900 in Pounds Sterling and US Dollars" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Historical Annual Average and Inflation Adjusted Aluminum Price since 1900 in Pounds Sterling and US Dollars</b></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">The doted lines are the
unadjusted nominal annual average aluminium price, and the sold lines are the
inflation adjusted aluminium price. The
first thing that becomes obvious is that the unadjusted aluminum</span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> price was
at its lowest in the late 1940s in both US Dollars and Pounds Sterling at
approximately $331 and £82 per a metric tonne respectively. Furthermore before 2010 the nominal price
peak occurred in 2006 in both US Dollars and UK Pounds at $2,690 and £1,453 per
a metric tonne respectively. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">However when you examine the
inflation adjusted aluminium price, you notice that its lowest prices occurred in 2002 in US Dollars at $1,792 and in 2003 in UK Pounds
at $1,190 per metric tonne. These
lowers were virtually matched in both currencies happened in 1992, 1999, and 2007. The pries see in 2010, in both US Dollars and
Pounds Sterling are comparably to the inflation adjusted prices through out the
1990s and 2000s. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial;">The historic inflation
adjusted aluminium prices in US Dollars and UK Pounds can be more easily seen
in the chart below, which only shows the inflation adjusted price on a linear
axis (non logarithmic, unlike the first chart). </span></div>
</div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8sIevXUYMtQ4xoO5O4AIfQWPXlO2CTEn1zZjmxotteSLJSH4LApwSXWYw9VI0rKIBtAik-Wtsvp6jkZfyo9FH7tVAnhbO4vuXoVP9MxkJMyuR0asewvfqA0l7wVPiEJyjOJD0yEmNQMay/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Aluminium+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds+2v.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Graph showing the inflation adjusted aluminium price is cheaper than most of the 19 century" border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8sIevXUYMtQ4xoO5O4AIfQWPXlO2CTEn1zZjmxotteSLJSH4LApwSXWYw9VI0rKIBtAik-Wtsvp6jkZfyo9FH7tVAnhbO4vuXoVP9MxkJMyuR0asewvfqA0l7wVPiEJyjOJD0yEmNQMay/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Aluminium+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds+2v.jpg" title="Chart of the Historic Inflation Adjusted Aluminum Price since 1900 in US Dollars and Pounds Sterling" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Historic Inflation Adjusted Aluminum Price since 1900 in US Dollars and Pounds Sterling</b></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">The inflation adjusted price
of aluminium was flat for the first 5 years of 20<sup>th</sup> Century whereupon it rose rapidly and peaked in 1907 at $24,000 and £20,150 per metric
tonne. From this peek it fell steady for
the next 10 year, until 1941 were it experienced a sharp rapid increase, which
coincided with the First World War (WWI) and fell back to its pre war prices by
the 1920s. The price remained fairly
flat thought out the 1920s and 1930s.
There was a substantial decrease in the prices in the early 1940s, however from the late 1940s until the late 1970s the
aluminium prises stayed pretty constant between $4,500 to $3,500 and £4,000 to
£2,300 per metric tonne. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">Using the price in 1900 as a baseline, the
inflation adjusted </span><span style="font-family: Arial;">aluminium </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">price in UK Pounds and US Dollars was indexed. This allows the examination of the relative
price changes during this historical period of time more easily and is shown
below.</span></div>
</div>
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivQj4VE7Q8aD1fJC_YKone3BkiNKvlbo4ApOuTzb23j33Gzn7mRr_GF0yclAVJ7XGLa2z3DKrGUJ-IKLu2HJxfdrRXQc-Le-Y_t0kTTly0j7mEXFTd73LxOUI_UI5uuJFmtGeEFvYq2Ize/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Aluminium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Graph showing inflation adjusted aluminium price index to the price at 1900 equalling 100. m The graph clearly shows that the when inflation is accounted for the aluminium price in 2011 is a lot cheaper than it was in the 1950's, 1960's, 1970's and 1980's. " border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivQj4VE7Q8aD1fJC_YKone3BkiNKvlbo4ApOuTzb23j33Gzn7mRr_GF0yclAVJ7XGLa2z3DKrGUJ-IKLu2HJxfdrRXQc-Le-Y_t0kTTly0j7mEXFTd73LxOUI_UI5uuJFmtGeEFvYq2Ize/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Aluminium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" title="Chart of the Historical Inflation Adjusted Aluminium Price since 1900 in US Dollars and GB Pounds, Indexed to 1900" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Historical Inflation Adjusted Aluminium Price since 1900 in US Dollars and GB Pounds, Indexed to 1900</b></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">The indexed price data clearly displays that the
historic inflation adjusted aluminum price has fallen considerably since the
1900s. </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">Once inflation
was accounted for t</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">he real price of aluminum by 2000s was approximately a tenth of what they were at the
beginning of the 20<sup>th</sup> Century. So from a historical perspective once
inflation has been accounted for, the price of aluminium has virtually never
been cheaper. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Written by <a href="http://inflationmonkey.blogspot.co.uk/p/about-inflation-monkey.html" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey</a></span><span style="font-size: small;">. <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" target="_blank">Join on Google+</a></span></div>
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InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-66102445881809943202012-03-25T18:43:00.000+01:002013-07-07T20:09:37.241+01:00In Which Currency is Crude Oil Presently Cheapest?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: small;">The Crude Oil Price Peeked in 2008 but how Expensive is it now in World Currencies</span></h2>
<span style="font-size: small;">Just recently there has been a lot of talk about
the price, plus the increasing price of petrol and diesel (which our US brethren
refer to as "gas"). So I thought that I’ll
look at the crude oil price over the last couple of years. There are many benchmarks for the crude oil
price, such as the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Texas_Intermediate" target="_blank">West Texas Intermediate (WTI)</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dubai_Crude" target="_blank">Dubai Crude</a>, but I’m going
to use the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brent_crude" target="_blank">Brent Crude</a> spot price. The nominal Brent Crude oil
price peaked on 3rd July 2008 at $143.95 (US Dollars) per barrel, before
rapidly falling during the “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_crunch" target="_blank">credit crunch</a>“ after the collapse of the US Investment bank <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehman_brothers" target="_blank">Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc</a>. <span style="font-family: Arial;">The nominal Brent Crude price bottomed on 26th December
2008 at $33.73 per barrel. Since that
time the prices have increased and by the 1st March 2012 the price was $125.76 per
barrel</span><span style="font-family: Arial;">, which is 87% of the peak price on 3rd July
2008. </span><span style="font-family: Arial;">However unless you live in the US, buy all your
goods and get paid in US Dollars, the Dollar price of crude oil doesn’t mean
much as your reference will be another currency</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial;">. So I’ve converted the crude oil price since
2008 to determine the price in several world currencies. The Brent Crude Oil price since 2008 in US
Dollars, UK Pounds and Euros is shown in the chart below.</span></div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig_5VDbpElHPCCh6bDZ-7wnL1Xkiro3R_dqTinsPKive3vDUXQiXSy_b63lWodA5B-E6c6Q7voCCGjwvZB-A-bLd7dthNlLjmySg7qPjwT8tJxQkcluKsTHPHPtme0mxLsrtBGSy6nADID/s1600/Oil+Price+in+Dollars+Pounds+Euros.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Graph showing the daily price of brent crude oil since 2008 in US Dollars, Euro and Pounds Sterling" border="0" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig_5VDbpElHPCCh6bDZ-7wnL1Xkiro3R_dqTinsPKive3vDUXQiXSy_b63lWodA5B-E6c6Q7voCCGjwvZB-A-bLd7dthNlLjmySg7qPjwT8tJxQkcluKsTHPHPtme0mxLsrtBGSy6nADID/s640/Oil+Price+in+Dollars+Pounds+Euros.jpg" title="Chart of the Daily Brent Crude Oil Price since 2008 in US Dollars, Pounds Sterling and Euros per Barrel" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Daily Brent Crude Oil Price since 2008 in US Dollars, Pounds Sterling and Euros per Barrel.</span></span></b></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;">The data for the <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm" target="_blank">historic daily Brent Crude Oil spot pric</a>e
since 2008 came from the US Energy Information Administration, </span><span style="font-size: small;">the and the <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/Hist/" target="_blank">daily international exchange rates forUS Dollars</a> came from the <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">From the chart above you can see that the oil
price in UK Pounds and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro" target="_blank">Euros (EUR)</a> at the time of the peak on 3rd July 2008
were £72.61 and EUR 91.64 per barrel respectively. Furthermore their receptive price on 1st March
2012 was £78.83 and EUR 94.41. </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">As it can be seen these
vales are higher than those see at the peak price on 3rd July 2008. Normalizing the crude oil
priced in the different world currencies by indexing the prices to the value on
3rd July 2008 (i.e. by making the value on that date = 100) highlights the
comparative price changes between those currencies over time. The chart below shoes the index daily Brent
Crude Oil price since 2008 in US Dollars, GB Pounds, Euros, Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan. Its interesting
to note that compared to the 2008 peak price, the oil price at the beginning
of March 2012 in Chinese Yuan and Japanese Yen is approximately 78% and 65% respectively. Compare this to approximately 85% for the
price in US Dollars, quite a difference! </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUyxcIqNPASKTpP6Jbzhp0U5vG2yI97UiXMkdA8NyNJOvaxrggVACwK5bGieIuWG4vO9GsY63LB5XSc4JwVsyY1KA-ySCW-PaXqvw-bdrhsN-WLhO1-bUmE1pow1OUT7JkhKZ2Kd7adXjt/s1600/Oil+Price+Index+in+Dollars+Pounds+Euros+Yen+Yuan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Graph showing the daily price of brent crude oil indexed to the peak price in 2008 which occured on 3rd July 2008 in a number of world currencies, US Dollar, Euro, Pounds Sterling, Japaness Yen and Chines Yuan." border="0" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUyxcIqNPASKTpP6Jbzhp0U5vG2yI97UiXMkdA8NyNJOvaxrggVACwK5bGieIuWG4vO9GsY63LB5XSc4JwVsyY1KA-ySCW-PaXqvw-bdrhsN-WLhO1-bUmE1pow1OUT7JkhKZ2Kd7adXjt/s640/Oil+Price+Index+in+Dollars+Pounds+Euros+Yen+Yuan.jpg" title="Chart of the Daily Brent Crude Oil Price since 2008 - Indexed to 3 July 2008 - in US Dollars, Pounds Sterling, Euros, Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan per Barrel" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Daily Brent Crude Oil Price since 2008</span></span></b><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> - Indexed to 3 July 200</span></span></b><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">8 - in US Dollars, Pounds Sterling, Euros, Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan per Barrel. </span></span></b></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;">From the chart above you can
clearly see that the crude oil priced in Pounds Sterling and Euro were by the
begging of March 2008, higher than at the July 2008 peak (by 8% and
3% respectively). </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">Below is the same index
chart of the Daily Brent Oil Price but for a set of emerging market currencies
(Indian Rupees, Brazilian Reals, Thai Baht and Japanese Yen). </span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV6s9isDBy40Q2_pwbV4xxNYlAZFW36fI2oLaYg9h8Bi0qkvyjagPY1IyZW4F-br79xAA40T7Z1FXuzGqOhN7ow97rDBQmIrmjFKq54FRG_n6gG8u_xytgWB0whCQ4S5JqWz4EG1cvtBlm/s1600/Oil+Price+Index+in+Dollars+Rupees+Reals+Yen+Thai+Baht.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Graph showing the daily price of brent crude oil indexed to the peak price in 2008 which occured on 3rd July 2008 in a number of world currencies, US Dollar, Japaness Yen, Indian Rupee, Brazilian Reals and Thai Baht. " border="0" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjV6s9isDBy40Q2_pwbV4xxNYlAZFW36fI2oLaYg9h8Bi0qkvyjagPY1IyZW4F-br79xAA40T7Z1FXuzGqOhN7ow97rDBQmIrmjFKq54FRG_n6gG8u_xytgWB0whCQ4S5JqWz4EG1cvtBlm/s640/Oil+Price+Index+in+Dollars+Rupees+Reals+Yen+Thai+Baht.jpg" title="Chart of teh Daily Brent Crude Oil Price since 2008 - Indexed to 3 July 2008 - in US Dollars, Japanese Yen Indian Rupees, Brazilian Reals, Thai Baht per Barrel" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Daily Brent Crude Oil Price since 2008</span></span></b><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> - Indexed to 3 July 200</span></span></b><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">8 - in US Dollars, Japanese Yen, </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Indian Rupees, Brazilian Reals, Thai Baht </span></span></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b> per Barrel</b></span><b><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> .</span></span></b><span style="font-size: small;"></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;">The worrying thing for the UK and Euro Zone is that the crude oil price has
been constantly high (at closet to 100% for the UK and 90% for the Euro Zone) compared
to the 2008 peak oil price since the beginning of 2011. For the rest of the world oil prices started high at the beginning of 2011 and then fell back. It was only since February 2012 for some of the other world currencies that the oil
prices started to rise to relatively high prices seen at the 2008 peak (examples are the Indian Rupee and US Dollar). </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Below is a table displaying the Brent Crude Oil
Price in a number of world currencies at the July 2008 peek, at the beginning
of March 2012 and the index price at the beginning of March 2012. </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">The
currencies have been ordered such that the one with the heights indexed oil
price is first and the lowest is last.
The US Dollar row is highlighted by being bold to illustrates in which
currencies the oil price index are larger or lower compared to the US Dollar
price. </span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></div>
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<b>Table of Brent Crude Oil Price per Barrel in a Number of World Currencies </b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Currency</span></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Brent Oil Price on 3rd July 2008</span></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Brent Oil Price on 1st March 2012</span></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Index Price on 1 March 2012 (3rd July 2008 = 100)</span></b></div>
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<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pounds_sterling" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Pounds Sterling (£)</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">72.61</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">78.83</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">108.6</span></div>
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<a href="http://euro/" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Euro (EUR)</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">91.64</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 101.8pt;" width="136"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">94.41</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">103.0</span></div>
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<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Rupees" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Indian Rupees</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">6,214.32</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">6,179.85</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">99.4</span></div>
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<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_kronor" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Swedish Kronor</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">861.92</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">832.61</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 135.0pt;" width="180"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">96.6</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 131.4pt;" width="175"><div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_Kroner" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Norwegian Kroner</span></a></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 90.0pt;" width="120"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">733.53</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 101.8pt;" width="136"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">701.74</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 135.0pt;" width="180"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">95.7</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 131.4pt;" width="175"><div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Korean_won" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">South Korea</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">n Won</span></a></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 90.0pt;" width="120"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">150,355.00</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 101.8pt;" width="136"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">140,348.00</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 135.0pt;" width="180"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">93.3</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 131.4pt;" width="175"><div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_Reals" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Brazilian Reals</span></a></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 90.0pt;" width="120"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">231.20</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 101.8pt;" width="136"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">215.15</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 135.0pt;" width="180"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">93.1</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 131.4pt;" width="175"><div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Us_dollar" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">US Dollar (US$)</span></b></a></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 90.0pt;" width="120"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">143.95</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 101.8pt;" width="136"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">125.76</span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 135.0pt;" width="180"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">87.4</span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 131.4pt;" width="175"><div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Dollar" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Hong Kong</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;"> Dollar (HK$)</span></a></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 90.0pt;" width="120"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">1,122.49</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 101.8pt;" width="136"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">975.28</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 135.0pt;" width="180"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">86.9</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 131.4pt;" width="175"><div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_Rand" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">South African Rand</span></a></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 90.0pt;" width="120"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">1,109.85</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 101.8pt;" width="136"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">938.80</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 135.0pt;" width="180"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">84.6</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 11;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 131.4pt;" width="175"><div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Taiwan_dollar" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Taiwanese Dollar (TWD$)</span></a></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 90.0pt;" width="120"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">4,380.00</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 101.8pt;" width="136"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">3,693.00</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 135.0pt;" width="180"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">84.3</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 12;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 131.4pt;" width="175"><div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysian_Ringgit" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Malaysian Ringgit</span></a></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 90.0pt;" width="120"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">470.00</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 101.8pt;" width="136"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">377.28</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 135.0pt;" width="180"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">80.3</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 13;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 131.4pt;" width="175"><div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_yuan" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Chinese Yuan</span></a></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 90.0pt;" width="120"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">986.47</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 101.8pt;" width="136"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">792.30</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 135.0pt;" width="180"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">80.3</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 14;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 131.4pt;" width="175"><div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_Baht" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Thai Baht</span></a></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 90.0pt;" width="120"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">4,799.29</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 101.8pt;" width="136"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">3,835.68</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 135.0pt;" width="180"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">79.9</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 15;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 131.4pt;" width="175"><div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_dollar" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Australian</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;"> Dollar (AUD$)</span></a></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 90.0pt;" width="120"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">149.89</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 101.8pt;" width="136"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">116.41</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 135.0pt;" width="180"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">77.7</span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 13.5pt; mso-yfti-irow: 16;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 131.4pt;" width="175"><div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_Franc" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Swiss Franc (CHF)</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">147.88</span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 101.8pt;" width="136"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">113.83</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">77.0</span></div>
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<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporean_Dollar" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Singaporean Dollar (SIN$)</span></a></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 90.0pt;" width="120"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">196.18</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 101.8pt;" width="136"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">139.45</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">71.1</span></div>
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<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Yen" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">Japanese Yen</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">15,372.0</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 101.8pt;" width="136"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">10,206.00</span></div>
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<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 13.5pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 135.0pt;" width="180"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;">66.4</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">As it can been seen that there is
a very wide variation in the crude oil prices in local currencies and the
relative change to those prices since the peak price in July 2008. Taking the price on 3rd July 2008 as the
reference point, in Pounds Sterling and Euros the crude oil price was larger by the beginning
of March 2012 than it was on the reference date, by 8.6 and 3%
respectively. For all the other
currencies the price is still lower, even thought it is only just for Indian
Rupees. For the majority of currencies
the oil prices is around 80-90% of the 2008 peak prices, like the US
Dollar. However there are a few
currencies where the oil prices is less than 80% of the 2008 peak prices
(Australian Dollar, Swiss Franc, Singaporean Dollar and Japanese Yen). Nevertheless the currency in which the crude
oil prices is the lowest compared to the 2008 peak is the Japanese Yen
and it the lowest by quite a margin! </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">The troubling thing for the UK and Euro Zone is that the crude oil price has
been constantly high (at closet to 100% for the UK and 90% for the Euro Zone)
compared to the 2008 peak, since the beginning of 2011. This is not a good sign as it highlights
external stresses being placed on their economies from high energy prices in
their local currencies. On the other
hand the Japanese and to a lesser extent Singaporean, Swiss and Australian
economies wont be suffering the same external stress from high local energy
prices (although they are likely to suffer from other things instead). </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">So it would seem that
compared to the peak crude oil prices seen in July 2008, oil is cheapest priced
in Japanese Yen and the most expensive priced in Pounds Sterling. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">Written by <a href="http://inflationmonkey.blogspot.co.uk/p/about-inflation-monkey.html" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey</a></span><span style="font-size: small;">. <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" target="_blank">Join on Google+</a></span></div>
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InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-59417663561258683862012-02-26T22:26:00.000+00:002013-07-07T20:25:36.746+01:00Rare Earths Prices are as Expensive as they were in the 1970s – Inflation Adjusted Historical Rare Earth Metal Price since 1970s in Pounds Sterling<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<h2 style="text-align: left;">
Rare Earth Metal Prices - Not as cheap as they use to be</h2>
<span style="font-size: small;">Rare earth elements or rare earth metals are a set of seventeen chemical elements in the periodic table, specifically the fifteen lanthanides plus scandium and yttrium. Scandium and yttrium are considered rare earth elements since they tend to occur in the same ore deposits as the lanthanides and exhibit similar chemical properties.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">They have several industrial applications from electronics (semiconductors), glasses, laser, catalyst, magnets to sensors. The end-use markets for rare earths are estimated to be: catalysts, 47%; metallurgical applications and alloys, 13%; alloys, 11%; glass polishing and ceramics, 10%; permanent magnets, 9%; ceramics, 5%; rare-earth phosphors for computer monitors, lighting, radar, televisions, and x-ray-intensifying film, 5% (Ref: <a href="http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/" target="_blank">US Geological Survey,Mineral Commodity Summaries 2011</a>). Until 1948, most of the world's rare earths were sourced from placer sand deposits in India and Brazil. In the 1950s South Africa took the status as the world's rare earth source, after large veins of rare earth bearing monazite were discovered. Through the 1960s until the 1980s, the Mountain Pass rare earth mine in California was the leading producer. Today, the Indian and South African deposits still produce some rare earth concentrates, but they are dwarfed by the scale of Chinese production. China now produces over 97% of the world's rare earth supply, mostly in Inner Mongolia even though it has only 37% of proven reserves.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">New demand has recently strained supply, and there is growing concern that the world may soon face a shortage of the rare earths, this is a very important element to examine. Plus the strategic political importance to these elements in the semiconductor and sensors used in modern weapons, new mines are been reopened or developed in the US, Australia in particular.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Rare earth elements are not exchange-traded in the same way that precious or non-ferrous metals are. Instead they are sold on the private market, which makes their prices difficult to monitor and track. There are some reviews of the </span><a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_1417909737"><span style="font-size: small;">rare earth</span></a><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33315.html" target="_blank"> market and price</a>, but these don’t usually cover the long term price history or adjusted to account for inflation. The estimated annual average rare earth price data came from the <a href="http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/" target="_blank">US Geological Survey</a>. The US Geological Survey used estimated the US price in actual dollars by a weighted average of imports and export. The historical UK Pound to US Dollar exchange rate data came from Lawrence H. Officer, "<a href="http://www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/">Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate From 1791</a>," MeasuringWorth, 2011 at <a href="http://www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/">www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/</a>. The prices were adjusted for inflation by converting the nominal price into the equivalent in 2011 US Dollars and 2011 GP Pounds Stirling. The US inflation data came from the <a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/community_education/teacher/calc/hist1800.cfm">historical CPI from the US Department of Labor</a>. For the UK inflation the data came from Dominic Webb (2006) "<a href="http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp2006/rp06-009.pdf">Inflation: the Value of the Pound 1750-2005</a>" Economic Policy and Statistics Section, Research Paper 06/09, House of Commons Library, UK. From this you get the following results shown in the graph below.</span></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3io5BKsVmUKk3_yme9qiG1cFO2-W5VWWuy9yGRZhDIoEyLeQnt6VE82GAP7kj_xU7RVtwFy8LLsbNvhUwHvPpO_wsMACKntryH_bCDef1bnHHHSfky46b4G5j1mnvwLwEjvusntz7goo6/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Rare+Earths+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="hart showing the historic price of rare earths and the inflation adjusted rare earth price since 1940 to 2011 in Pounds Sterling and Dollars" border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3io5BKsVmUKk3_yme9qiG1cFO2-W5VWWuy9yGRZhDIoEyLeQnt6VE82GAP7kj_xU7RVtwFy8LLsbNvhUwHvPpO_wsMACKntryH_bCDef1bnHHHSfky46b4G5j1mnvwLwEjvusntz7goo6/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Rare+Earths+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" title="Chart of the Historical Annual Average and Inflation Adjusted Rare Earths Price since 1940 in Pounds Sterling and US Dollars" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Historical Annual Average and Inflation Adjusted Rare Earths Price since 1940 in Pounds Sterling and US Dollars</b></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">The doted lines are the unadjusted nominal annual average rare earths price, and the sold lines are the inflation adjusted rare earths price. The first thing that becomes obvious is that the unadjusted rare earths price was at its lowest in the early 1961s in Dollars and Pounds Sterling at approximately $82 and £30 per a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tonne">metric tonne</a></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"> respectively. Furthermore before 2010 the nominal price peak occurred in 1948 in US Dollars at $14,700 per metric tonne and in occurred <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">in 2008 in UK Pounds at £7,300. </span> </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">However when you examine the inflation adjusted rare earths price, you notice that its lowest prices was in still occurred in 1961, in both Dollars and Pounds terms at $618 and £535 per metric tonne respectively. The pries see in 2010, in both dollars and Pounds are comparably to <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">the inflation adjusted prices in the 1970s, nevertheless are not as high as those before the 1960s. From the 1940s the inflation adjusted price decreased from $140,000 and £95,000 to $27,000 and £23,000 per metric tonne. </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">From this chart it can clearly be seen that since the 1962 the inflation adjusted price of rare earths has oscillated between $2,000, and £1,500 to $20,000 and £20,000 per metric tonne. <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">Using the price in 1971 as a baseline the inflation adjusted platinum price in UK Pounds and US Dollars was indexed and this is shown below. </span></span></div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8y3uqHTsHzw6iNvEYb5lnOEAUDKQGx2ZjTDDnGdvwIf2fxdezuZCGZfYKcV8LzcFs5KYdL3UcSB57CXuNl21WrF8QZXobEtWBSLjLxoO_qRsCOPrtVPNa3bpU6NypoDEzqJiG_fdBdBX7/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Rare+Earths+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart showing the inflation adjusted price of rare earths since 1940 and clearly shows that the real price is as expensive as it was in the early 1970's but not as expensive as it was before the late 1960's." border="0" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8y3uqHTsHzw6iNvEYb5lnOEAUDKQGx2ZjTDDnGdvwIf2fxdezuZCGZfYKcV8LzcFs5KYdL3UcSB57CXuNl21WrF8QZXobEtWBSLjLxoO_qRsCOPrtVPNa3bpU6NypoDEzqJiG_fdBdBX7/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Rare+Earths+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" title="Chart of the Historical Inflation Adjusted Rare Earths Price since 1940 in US Dollars and GB Pounds, Indexed to 1971" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Historical Inflation Adjusted Rare Earths Price since 1940 in US Dollars and GB Pounds, Indexed to 1971</b></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The indexed price data clearly displays that the historic inflation adjusted rare earths prices has fallen considerably since the 1940s. Their real prices are no where near the prices they use to be before 1960. To in examine the relative price changes during this historical cheap price for rare earths the indexed price data is plotted from 1960 and is shown below. </span></span><br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHqNEqfNkKnYfMVii1tklUTUzKlkPXSQKCTNGsrTTY8Ow9u9rgaeXjpXMcE9BLR1X7Wl8cxfLDuSGk9irWIL6C2TXI2P27kFaK6fJUGG8oTNL4Sd9XmQznwtL24sWJdO5fdIp-mZoyOcUo/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Rare+Earths+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index+2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Graph showing the inflation adjusted price of rare earths since 1960 and clearly shows that the real price is as expensive as it was in the early 1970's. " border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHqNEqfNkKnYfMVii1tklUTUzKlkPXSQKCTNGsrTTY8Ow9u9rgaeXjpXMcE9BLR1X7Wl8cxfLDuSGk9irWIL6C2TXI2P27kFaK6fJUGG8oTNL4Sd9XmQznwtL24sWJdO5fdIp-mZoyOcUo/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Rare+Earths+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index+2.jpg" title="Chart of the Historical Inflation Adjusted Rare Earths Price since 1960 in US Dollars and GB Pounds, Indexed to 1971" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Historical Inflation Adjusted Rare Earths Price since 1960 in US Dollars and GB Pounds, Indexed to 1971</b></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;">It can be seen from this chart that the inflation adjusted price in both US Dollars and UK Pounds were stable during the 1960s. During the 1970s the price was very volatile increasing 800% by 1972 only to eventually decrease to 200% of the 1971 price in Dollars, in Pounds the price also returned to the inflation adjusted value of 1971. The price was prettily volatile during the 1980s, but not as bad as the 1970s. However there was a step change in the price at the end of the 1980s and early 1990s. Since then there has been a gradual decrees in the inflation adjusted pries, were upon it bottoms in 2005 at the same value as seen in the early 1980s, at just under 200% of the 1971 price in Dollars and just above 100% of the 1971 price in Pounds. Since 2005 the price has rapidly raisin to over 800% of the 1971 price in Dollars and 600% of the 1971 price in Pounds. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">So from a historical perspective this makes the price of rare earths as expensive as the inflation adjusted prices of the early 1970s, but not as expensive as they were before the 1960s.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Written by <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey. Join on Google+</a></span><span style="font-size: small;">.</span><br />
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InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-58012071425901486112012-02-22T22:36:00.001+00:002013-07-07T20:26:12.290+01:00Platinum Prices are the Most Expensive Since 1960 - Inflation Adjusted Historical Platinum Price in Pounds Sterling and US Dollars<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: small;">Platinum Prices is back to the 1960s and 1980s peak </span></h2>
<span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Platinum" target="_blank">Platinum</a> is a dense, malleable, ductile, precious, gray-white transition metal. Its name is derived from the Spanish term<i> platina del Pinto</i>, which is literally translated into "little silver of the Pinto River". It exhibits a remarkable resistance to corrosion, even at high temperatures, and as such is considered a noble metal. It is one of the rarest elements in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance_of_elements_in_Earth%27s_crust" target="_blank">Earth's crust and has an average abundance Platinum of approximately 5 μg/kg</a>. It is a transition metal and a member of the platinum group metals (PGM). The catalytic properties of the six platinum group metals – iridium, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhodium, and ruthenium – are outstanding, but platinum has the lowest melting point and is the least dense of them. This unique property of platinum and other platinum group metals account for their widespread use in the chemical and automotive industries. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.platinum.matthey.com/publications/market-data-charts/platinum-charts/" target="_blank">Sources of platinum production</a> are quite limited. More than 88% of world Platinum production is concentrated in just two countries: the Russian Federation and South Africa. South Africa alone accounts for 75% of as the second biggest supplier at 13%. The six metals of the PGM occur in nature in close association with one another and with nickel and copper. They are among the least abundant of the Earth's elements. Of the few known deposits, those in South Africa and Russia are by far the largest. There are fewer than <a href="http://www.platinum.matthey.com/production/%29%20" target="_blank">ten significant pgm miningcompanies in the world</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial;"><a href="http://www.platinum.matthey.com/publications/market-data-charts/platinum-charts/" target="_blank">Platinum in used in a range of industries</a>, but in 2011 around 32% of all the mined supply were used in the automotive industry as the catalyst in automobile catalytic converters with an almost equal amount used in industrial applications. With petrol (gasoline) engine the amounts of air and fuel burnt are usually in chemical balance, there being no excess of either. Under these conditions, and at the quite high temperatures (350-750°C) of the gasoline exhaust gas, platinum and/or palladium oxidise the pollutants carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons (HC), while rhodium catalyses the reduction of nitrogen oxides (nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide, termed NOx) to nitrogen. Auto companies, therefore, use catalysts containing platinum and rhodium, palladium and rhodium, or a mixture of all three to meet current gasoline vehicle emissions regulations. These catalytic converters are known as three-way catalysts. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">In marked contrast a diesel engine always operates with a large excess of air, often referred to as lean-burn operation with the an additional complication from the operating conditions of diesel engines that result in low exhaust gas temperatures (120-350°C). This means that threeway catalysts cannot perform under these conditions, therefore it been necessary to restrict NOx emissions by sophisticated diesel engine control measures and to use an oxidation catalyst to convert excess HC and CO to water and carbon dioxide. To date, <a href="http://www.platinum.matthey.com/uploaded_files/publications/diesel.pdf" target="_blank">only platinumbased catalysts have been able to be used with diesel engines</a>. </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial;"> Demand for diesel powered cars in Western Europe has grown remarkably over the last decade which as driven the demand for platinum automobile catalytic in Europe. Since 1979, <a href="http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/platinum/" target="_blank">the automotive industry has emergedas the principal consumer of PGM</a>. Platinum is even used as an investment through <a href="http://www.taxfreegold.co.uk/platinum.html" target="_blank">platinum coins</a> </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">and <a href="http://www.ampalian.com/jewellery-Platinum.php" target="_blank">platinum jewellery</a></span><span style="font-family: Arial;">. </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">With the ever increasing use and demand for high performance catalysts, the every growing number of automobiles and jewellery, this is a very important element to examine. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">The annual average <a href="http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalplatinum.html" target="_blank">Platinum price data came from www.kitco.com</a> </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">and it dates back to 1960. </span></span> <br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">The historical UK Pound to US Dollar exchange rate data came from Lawrence H. Officer, <a href="http://www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/" target="_blank">"Dollar-PoundExchange Rate From 1791," MeasuringWorth</a>, 2011 at <a href="http://www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/">www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/</a>. </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">The prices were adjusted for inflation by converting the nominal price into the equivalent in 2011 US Dollars and 2011 GP Pounds Stirling. T<a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/community_education/teacher/calc/hist1800.cfm" target="_blank">he US inflation data came from the historical CPI from the US Department of Labor</a>.</span> <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">For the UK inflation the data came from Dominic Webb <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">(2006) </span></span><a href="http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp2006/rp06-009.pdf" style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" target="_blank">"Inflation:the Value of the Pound 1750-2005" Economic Policy and Statistics Section, Research Paper 06/09, House of Commons Library, UK</a><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">. </span> <span style="font-family: Arial;">From this you get the following results shown in the graph below.</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span></span></span><br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjg3nuooYMSsZNePYgwzvEkTEvJHzYmIc8OrXpGU-IYkP3AO-MepTDF0k2GpmMY_XnlKpP2pC06q-g1b6Cv29nX3KnqbGnF2BomHVA-2BbyfV6AOab5_KlBCGRD5TvDtsvnqObdeT6SRwg/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Platinum+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjg3nuooYMSsZNePYgwzvEkTEvJHzYmIc8OrXpGU-IYkP3AO-MepTDF0k2GpmMY_XnlKpP2pC06q-g1b6Cv29nX3KnqbGnF2BomHVA-2BbyfV6AOab5_KlBCGRD5TvDtsvnqObdeT6SRwg/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Platinum+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Historical Annual Average and Inflation Adjusted Platinum Price since 1960 in Pounds Sterling and US Dollars</b></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">The doted lines are the unadjusted nominal annual average platinum price, and the sold lines are the inflation adjusted platinum price. The first thing that becomes obvious is that the unadjusted palladium price was at its loest in the early 1960s in Dollars and Pounds Sterling at approximately $80 and £30 per a <a href="http://www.platinum.matthey.com/media-room/frequently-asked-questions/what-is-a-troy-ounce/" target="_blank">troy ounce</a> respectively. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">However when you examine the inflation adjusted platinum price, you notice that its lowest prices was in 1999 in both GB Pounds and US Dollars at around £332 and $511 per troy ounce respectively. Since them the price peaked in 2010 at approximately £1,184 and $1,798 per troy ounce respectively, where upon it dropped back to slightly 2011. In US Dollar, the inflation adjusted price peak in 2010 was very similar to the value of the previous peaks in 1968 and 1980. On the other hand when priced in Pounds Starlings the inflation adjusted price peak in 2010 was very close to that in 1980 but not 1968, which was larger, which can be easily seen in the chart below showing only the inflation adjusted platinum price with a linear axis (non logarithmic, unlike the first chart).</span><br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDnRz-_wUmhJCC8HSYJphYhTuQbzdDCuz2ZsxC1VNDzyZylv8bYCLrz9U82x02jqOBb1wt_oIASpwLcSV6ByRgKmnOT7dwq-zTssxMuPEJPrbT_cm045AKugpKCiEuqNeO75zqwcpfRAcq/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Platinum+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds+2v.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDnRz-_wUmhJCC8HSYJphYhTuQbzdDCuz2ZsxC1VNDzyZylv8bYCLrz9U82x02jqOBb1wt_oIASpwLcSV6ByRgKmnOT7dwq-zTssxMuPEJPrbT_cm045AKugpKCiEuqNeO75zqwcpfRAcq/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Platinum+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds+2v.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Historic Inflation Adjusted Platinum Price since 1960 in US Dollars and Pounds Sterling</b></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">The inflation adjusted price bottomed in 1998 at $514 and £324 per troy ounce respectively. Coincidently this was the <a href="http://inflationmonkey.blogspot.com/2012/01/inflation-adjusted-historical-palladium.html" target="_blank">year before the palladium priced peaked</a>. </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">It is interesting to note that between 1960 until 1985 the inflation adjusted price bottomed at around $500 in Dollars and in the region of £460 to £560 in Pounds Sterling. The all-time peak inflation adjusted price occurred in 1980 in US Dollars at approximately $1,850, but occurred in 1968 in UK Pounds at approximately £1,520 per troy ounce. When priced in Dollars, there were 3 peaks in the inflation adjusted price, 1968, 1980 and 210. However when priced in Pounds there were only 1 occasions it peaked, 1968. There next 2 highest peaks occurred in 1980 and 2010 at approximately £1,000 and £1,200 respectively (which are 33% and 21% lower then the peak in 1968). </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">Using the price in 1971 as a baseline the inflation adjusted platinum price in UK Pounds and US Dollars was indexed and this is shown below.</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"> </span></span></div>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguxwutzQHq9WFuZWvlt4YSjP1gTTiAFpsCHyoGcHwRBNi2HVaFOB17JpSm5BgLOSzUP8UrLzSGzeeSXgAn0ib_0c80hCkkhvpirbYerSv5vUpciEDMu9odc2XZ0KGpNRgx97LZdYlXGrRr/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Platinum+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEguxwutzQHq9WFuZWvlt4YSjP1gTTiAFpsCHyoGcHwRBNi2HVaFOB17JpSm5BgLOSzUP8UrLzSGzeeSXgAn0ib_0c80hCkkhvpirbYerSv5vUpciEDMu9odc2XZ0KGpNRgx97LZdYlXGrRr/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Platinum+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Historical Inflation Adjusted Platinum Price since 1960 in US Dollars and GB Pounds, Indexed to 1971</b></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">The indexed price data clearly displays that the historic inflation adjusted platinum prices has been considerably volatile since 1960. In fact the most stable period for the price in both US Dollars and UK Pounds, was during the 1990s. The annual average price in US Dollars in 2011, was within 93% of the inflation adjusted peak prices of 1980. So in reflection platinum is very expensive in US Dollars relative to its historic inflation adjusted price, but only moderately expensive when priced in Pounds.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Written by <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey. Join on Google+</a></span><span style="font-size: small;">.</span></div>
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InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-57045029210588587042012-01-25T18:55:00.003+00:002013-07-07T20:26:31.514+01:00Inflation Adjusted Historical Palladium Price since 1968 - in Pounds Sterling and US Dollars<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">Palladium </span><span style="font-size: small;">Prices still below its 2000 peak </span></h2>
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palladium" target="_blank">Palladium</a> is </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">a rare and lustrous silvery-white metal discovered in 1803 by William Hyde Wollaston</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">. He named it after the asteroid Pallas. </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">It is </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">is a transition metal and a member of the platinum group metals (PGM). The catalytic properties of the six platinum group metals – iridium, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhodium, and ruthenium – are outstanding, but palladium has the lowest melting point and is the least dense of them. This unique property of palladium and other platinum group metals account for their widespread use in the chemical and automotive industries. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"><a href="http://www.platinum.matthey.com/publications/market-data-charts/palladium-charts/" target="_blank">Sources of palladium production</a> are quite limited. More than 80% of world palladium production is concentrated in just two countries: the Russian Federation and South Africa. The Russian Federation alone accounts for around half of total palladium supply. The six metals of the PGM occur in nature in close association with one another and with nickel and copper. They are among the least abundant of the Earth's elements. Of the few known deposits, those in South Africa and Russia are by far the largest. There are fewer than ten <a href="http://www.platinum.matthey.com/production/" target="_blank">significant PGM mining companies</a> in the world. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"><a href="http://www.platinum.matthey.com/applications/" target="_blank">Palladium in used in a range of industries</a>, but in 2011 around <a href="http://www.platinum.matthey.com/publications/market-data-charts/palladium-charts/" target="_blank">64% of all the supply of palladium were used in the automotiveindustry</a> as the catalyst in automobile catalytic converters, which convert up to 90% of harmful gases from auto exhaust (hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen dioxide) into less-harmful substances (nitrogen, carbon dioxide and water vapor). Palladium is also used in electronics, dentistry, medicine, hydrogen purification, chemical applications, and groundwater treatment. Palladium plays a key role in the technology used for fuel cells, which combine hydrogen and oxygen to produce electricity, heat, and water.</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">Since 1979, the <a href="http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/platinum/" target="_blank">automotive industry has emergedas the principal consumer of PGM</a></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">. </span><span style="font-family: Arial;">Palladium is even used as an <a href="http://www.palladiumcoins.com/" target="_blank">investment throughpalladium coins and bars</a>.</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"> With this ever increasing use and demand for high performance catalysts and every growing number of automobiles, this is a very important element to examine. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">The annual average Palladium price data came from <a href="http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalpalladium.html">www.kitco.com</a> </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">and it dates back to 1968. </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">The historical UK Pound to US Dollar exchange rate data came from <a href="http://www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/">Lawrence H. Officer, "Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate From1791," MeasuringWorth, 201</a>1 at <a href="http://www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/">www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/</a></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"></span><span style="font-size: small;">.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">The prices were adjusted for inflation by converting the nominal price into the equivalent in 2011 US Dollars and 2011 GP Pounds Stirling. <a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/community_education/teacher/calc/hist1800.cfm">The US inflation data came from thehistorical CPI from the US Department of Labor</a>. For the UK inflation the data came from Dominic Webb (2006) <a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_388242404">"</a></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"><a href="http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp2006/rp06-009.pdf">Inflation:the Value of the Pound 1750-2005" Economic Policy and Statistics Section,Research Paper 06/09, House of Commons Library, UK</a>.</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"> From this you get the following results shown in the graph below.</span><br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNQiogAKQOiJkGYp4mjeLv_EcofBtRAQ0Ky8ctQxz4jMtnwaU3KgLGztxw5lzODaWN5x6YeaXHcp3dVU4KPsqcjwXRB3FIfpfxM8SNgwEe1s0vGsas03pkm4NLqBm-4w0eZojitTvaR_Zi/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Palladium+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNQiogAKQOiJkGYp4mjeLv_EcofBtRAQ0Ky8ctQxz4jMtnwaU3KgLGztxw5lzODaWN5x6YeaXHcp3dVU4KPsqcjwXRB3FIfpfxM8SNgwEe1s0vGsas03pkm4NLqBm-4w0eZojitTvaR_Zi/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Palladium+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Historical Annual Average and Inflation Adjusted Palladium Price since 1968 in Pounds Sterling and US Dollars</b></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">The doted lines are the unadjusted nominal annual average palladium price, and the sold lines are the inflation adjusted palladium price. The first thing that becomes obvious is that the unadjusted palladium price bottomed around 1971 in Dollars a approximately $35 per <a href="http://www.metric-conversions.org/weight/troy-ounce-conversion.htm" target="_blank">troy ounce</a> and in 1969 in Pounds at around £13 per troy ounce<span style="font-size: small;">. </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">However when you examine the inflation adjusted palladium price, you notice that its lowest prices was in 1992 in both GB Pounds and US Dollars at around £84 and $140 per troy ounce respectively. Since them the price peaked in 2000 at approximately £621 and $891 per troy ounce respectively. It then dropped back to a price similar to that in the mid 1990’s before rising again by 2011 to a value close to the peak in 2000</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">. Below is a chart showing only the inflation adjusted palladium price with a linear axis (non logarithmic axis, unlike the first chart).</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghTCRLUoO8HUfI2ROEUSKep-RpuQnZGFOvNPPvMquZKGlWVPLzJKunDr-9HDSEJEJKa8Zi0JJ87L3LLqbIswhxNFtrNGn0bJdS6lJs9I1qT2qDpIiiR4CHKZtix8hbnXqvy3MINGUL97yJ/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Palladium+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds+2v.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghTCRLUoO8HUfI2ROEUSKep-RpuQnZGFOvNPPvMquZKGlWVPLzJKunDr-9HDSEJEJKa8Zi0JJ87L3LLqbIswhxNFtrNGn0bJdS6lJs9I1qT2qDpIiiR4CHKZtix8hbnXqvy3MINGUL97yJ/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Palladium+Price+Dollars+and+Pounds+2v.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Historic Inflation Adjusted Palladium Price since 1968 in US Dollars and Pounds Sterling</b></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">The second thing that you realize is that inflation adjusted palladium price has been fairly volatile since 1968. There have been several times when the inflation adjusted price increased by a factor of 3, 4 or larger, over a 4 or four years before crashing back down to bottoms around $70 to $100. In Pounds the values at the bottoms were not close to each other was they were in Dollars. Nor were the peaks always reaching the same % increased from the bottoms as they did in Dollars, as seen in the 1980 peak.</span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"> Using the price in 1971 as a baseline the inflation adjusted palladium price in UK Pounds and US Dollars was indexed and this is shown below.</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgupNTHQYHDPca4gtvLly0jRcrcbZw5l40pr7rc341SzqhDQvk4iMx8rCulDOJRMgWT2yq99hbXDYClf2I2JGdjBZ0_lP9GV0nlbmnSnN52vrmFIYlnEjmURsCqGmoj0l5tW1JhPvcQWPmM/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Palladium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgupNTHQYHDPca4gtvLly0jRcrcbZw5l40pr7rc341SzqhDQvk4iMx8rCulDOJRMgWT2yq99hbXDYClf2I2JGdjBZ0_lP9GV0nlbmnSnN52vrmFIYlnEjmURsCqGmoj0l5tW1JhPvcQWPmM/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Palladium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Historical Inflation Adjusted Palladium Price since 1968 in US Dollars and GB Pounds, Indexed to 1971</b></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">The indexed price data clearly displays that the historic inflation adjusted palladium prices has been considerably volatile since 1968. In fact the most stable period for the price in both US Dollars and UK Pounds, was between the early 1980s until the late 1990s Additional the average price in US Dollars for 2011, was within 80% of the inflation adjusted peak prices of 2000. Tit is interesting to note that since the early 2000s the inflation adjusted palladium price in Pounds Sterling has not increased by the same multiple as see for the price in US Dollars. This phenomenon has been observed occasionally in the long term <a href="http://inflationmonkey.blogspot.com/2011/09/updated-inflation-adjusted-gold-price.html" target="_blank">historic inflation adjusted gold price</a> </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">and the <a href="http://inflationmonkey.blogspot.com/2011/12/inflation-adjusted-historic-silver.html" target="_blank">historic inflation adjusted silver price</a></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;">. It will be interesting over the next few months to see if this phenomenon is also found for other commodity prices hen inflation adjusted in Pounds Sterling?</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Written by <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey. Join on Google+</a></span><span style="font-size: small;">.</span><br />
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InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-73736677314921326582012-01-15T23:41:00.015+00:002012-10-27T23:23:49.252+01:00Special Offer - Train Tickets at 1987 Prices<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: small;">We all have fond memories of using trains in our younger days, and comments such as <span style="font-style: italic;">“I can remember when you could get from Birmingham to London for £20” </span>are commonly heard by the ticket booths in train stations, as people are continually shocked by the current price of tickets. In recent months, the media have spend a lot of effort reporting the rising cost of transport and the fact that they are <a href="http://www.totallymoney.com/news/index.php/2012/01/rents-fall-for-second-consecutive-month/" target="_blank">increasing</a> faster then inflation:</span> </div>
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<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16260872" target="_blank">"Rail fares to rise by 5.9% from January"</a></div>
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<a href="http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/293429/Blast-of-fury-over-new-train-fares" target="_blank">"Blast of Fury over New Train Fares"</a> </div>
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<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/dec/30/uk-rail-season-tickets-europe" target="_blank">"Rail season tickets cost up to 10 times more in UK than elsewhere in Europe"</a> </div>
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<a href="http://viewtv.co.uk/reading/rail-fares-to-rise-by-5-9-from-january" target="_blank">"Rail fares to rise by 5.9% from January"</a><br />
<a href="http://walkdenstation.wordpress.com/2011/12/31/fare-increases-of-7-and-more-from-jan-2nd/">"Fare increases of 7% and more from Jan 2nd"</a></div>
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<a href="http://www.passengertransport.co.uk/2012/01/making-fares-regulation-fit-for-purpose" target="_blank">"Making fares regulation fit for purpose"</a> </div>
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<a href="http://www.theorbital.co.uk/2011/12/train-fares-to-rise-in-january" target="_blank">"Train fares to rise in January"</a> </div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">In the UK about half of all train fare are regulated by the UK government and are increased according to the formula of the inflation rate as measured by the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RPI" target="_blank">Retail Price Index (RPI)</a> in July, plus 1%. In July 2011 the RPI inflation rate was 5%. This leads to the questions:</span></div>
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<li><span style="font-size: small;">How have train fares compared to UK inflation over the long term? </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;">Have they increases on average, in-line with inflation or faster?</span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></li>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Additionally is the inflation rate as measured by RPI telling the whole story, and does this fairly reflect the affordability of train and bus fares? </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">The price data to analyse the relative increases for rail fares, comes from the underlining data for goods and services compiled by the <a href="http://www.ons.gov.uk/" target="_blank">Office of National Statistics</a> (ONS) since 1987. This is the same data the ONS use to calculate the UK inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Price Index (RPI). All the data used here has been index to January 1987 to allow simple comparison of price increases. For example an index value of 300 in 2011, means that that the price at this time had tripled since January 1987 (when it was 100). The charts of the sector breakdown of the ONS inflation data came from </span><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/">InflationaryPressure.com</a>. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">The chart below shows the index values of train tickets against RPI for the last 25 years. It can clearly be seen that rail fares have increased faster than inflation, as measured by RPI over the last quarter of a century. A closer examination of the chart reveals an increase in-line with RPI until 1991. After this, they increased at a slightly faster rate, but not by much. However since the early 2000s rail fares started to increase faster than RPI. By 2011 RPI had increased approximately 2.5 times since 1987, compared to train travel which increased by approximately 3.5 times!</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">So the answer to the first question posed earlier, - yes, train fares have increased faster than inflation over the majority of the last 25 years.</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJCvhyphenhyphenc85qGBW3K3T7f8Klhj2I_NPVJZDr05YpKbDn0RZzBM27RaX9tHXshuJ4ZqCg5g_oum00CbtsYalH2Qcs62V-KtQxRTD3nmzUrEO2c5aC54Bgi-gsTk_uwZb4Dl61ikzPVhlbOQRF/s1600/Train+Fares+against+RPI.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart of the retail price index RPI and the train fare price index since 1987 to 2011 showing that train fares have increased at a faster rate than inflation" border="0" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJCvhyphenhyphenc85qGBW3K3T7f8Klhj2I_NPVJZDr05YpKbDn0RZzBM27RaX9tHXshuJ4ZqCg5g_oum00CbtsYalH2Qcs62V-KtQxRTD3nmzUrEO2c5aC54Bgi-gsTk_uwZb4Dl61ikzPVhlbOQRF/s640/Train+Fares+against+RPI.png" title="Chart of Historical UK Train Fares against UK Inflation RPI Since 1987 from www.inflationarypressure.com" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/customchart1987/Graph%20of%20price%20of%20RPI%20All%20Items%20against%20Rail%20Fares%20showing%20inflation.html" target="_blank">Chart of Historical UK Train Fares against UK Inflation RPI Since 1987</a></b></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;">However does this tell the whole story? Does this mean that on average bus and rail fares are much more expensive than they were in 1980s? What about the affect of rising wages over the last 25 years? Did they rise in line with inflation?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Below is a chart showing the average salary index against RPI. It can clearly be seen that the average wages in the UK have increased faster than inflation, as measured by RPI, for almost 75% the the last quarter of a century. It is true that average salaries have been increasing at a much slower rate than RPI since the Credit Crunch which started in late 2008, however over the last 25 years, the compounded growth of average wages has out striped RPI. By 2011, RPI had increases approximately 2.5 times since 1987, however average wages had increased by over 3 times!</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsN8H2UDjs0XxWF7I-QlN1QASQF17XV21XxKkQdcpgI_6tIbo1eOPffuFndZE2HQlkCOYnAVbm6oZGwKF1-lghfitJnH6rAL8MmCvML8UA2YRAu1nWud9mP5C5wi6ZD8IbmB0OXqDy28mD/s1600/RPI+vs+Wages.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart of the average UK salaries growth index and the retail price index RPI since 1987 to 2011 showing that wages have increased at a faster rate than inflation" border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsN8H2UDjs0XxWF7I-QlN1QASQF17XV21XxKkQdcpgI_6tIbo1eOPffuFndZE2HQlkCOYnAVbm6oZGwKF1-lghfitJnH6rAL8MmCvML8UA2YRAu1nWud9mP5C5wi6ZD8IbmB0OXqDy28mD/s640/RPI+vs+Wages.jpg" title="Graph of Historical UK RPI Inflation against Average Salary Growth from www.inflationarypressure.com" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/customchart1987/Graph%20of%20price%20of%20RPI%20All%20Items%20against%20Average%20Earnings%20Index%20showing%20inflation.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: small;">Graph of Historical UK RPI Inflation against Average Salary Growth</span></a></b></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">When train fares are compared to average salaries a different trend is discovered, as shown in the chart below. It now seems that train fares almost perfectly track average wages over the last 25 years. There was a slight deviation in the increases in the early 2000s, when train fares increased less than RPI, but this was a relatively small amount.</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibyKRhGwiJHy3rwZRIgF9KLYqc_87zpMQwklo2CVqiTU_vZACNZjokR40sXrWuPvxbRpnuFoejNXEvz1CYOWlnJJ-5RD95cZVeJjL3okk9fAyZ2qnRyg_XiexjvbxvwKV51olQseSkjM1b/s1600/Train+Fares+against+Average+Wages.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart of the indexed cost of train thickets and average UK salaries since 1987 to 2011 showing that the has increased in line with each other" border="0" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibyKRhGwiJHy3rwZRIgF9KLYqc_87zpMQwklo2CVqiTU_vZACNZjokR40sXrWuPvxbRpnuFoejNXEvz1CYOWlnJJ-5RD95cZVeJjL3okk9fAyZ2qnRyg_XiexjvbxvwKV51olQseSkjM1b/s640/Train+Fares+against+Average+Wages.png" title="Chart of Historical Train Fares against UK Average Salary Growth Since 1987 from www.inflationarypressure.com" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/customchart1987/Graph%20of%20price%20of%20Average%20Earnings%20Index%20against%20Rail%20Fares%20showing%20inflation.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: small;">Chart of Historical Train Fares against UK Average Salary Growth Since 1987</span></a></b></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">This leads to the next question: how have bus and coach fares increased compared to rail <span style="color: black; font-size: small;">fares? </span></span><span style="color: black; font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The graph below shows that rail fares and bus & coach fares are very closely correlated as then have tracked each other very closely since 1987. </span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"></span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv06jDP9kzg6-LGkP13UBCldHOh7O0VjoeHcqYQflrQWLL7gbwCJqJ8x4CR-d_6yqVfNTgExGFC7GRfKCobbBpqVkJ9mcyj2NsSKNPXu9eTlVBG0h2caaCPjh7Rl98UzW-nEYfNiEqDwpF/s1600/Train+Fares+against+Bus+and+Coach+Fares.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart of the indexed price of bus and coach tickets and train fares since 1987 showing that the has increased in line with each other" border="0" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv06jDP9kzg6-LGkP13UBCldHOh7O0VjoeHcqYQflrQWLL7gbwCJqJ8x4CR-d_6yqVfNTgExGFC7GRfKCobbBpqVkJ9mcyj2NsSKNPXu9eTlVBG0h2caaCPjh7Rl98UzW-nEYfNiEqDwpF/s640/Train+Fares+against+Bus+and+Coach+Fares.png" title="Graph of Historical UK Train Fares against Bus and Coach Fares Since 1987 from www.inflationarypressure.com" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/customchart1987/Graph%20of%20price%20of%20Bus%20and%20Coach%20Fares%20against%20Rail%20Fares%20showing%20inflation.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: small;">Graph of Historical UK Train Fares against Bus and Coach Fares Since 1987</span></a></b></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">This leads to the </span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">conclusion that wages make up the largest part of the cost-base for <span style="font-size: small;">trail, </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="color: black;">bus & coach fares as they have <span style="color: black; font-size: small;">all increased faster than inflation, but in-line with average salaries </span></span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">for a quarter of a century. </span><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">So to get train, bus or coach fares to be cheaper in the future, the companies need to 1) be more efficient or automated (ie reducing the head count) or 2) the wages of their staff need to decrease relative to the national average, or a combination of the two. Not a very pleasant prospect for the employees in the </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">rail, bus and coach industries, if everyone says that fares are too expensive and must come down in the future.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">So train, bus and coach fares are just as cheap (or expensive) relatively to wages as they were 25 years. This will be a controversial result to many.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Written by <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey. Join on Google+</a></span><span style="font-size: small;">. </span></div>
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InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-27539340872923858582011-12-13T23:58:00.038+00:002013-07-07T20:20:45.275+01:00Inflation Adjusted Historical Lithium Price since 1952 - in Pounds Sterling and US Dollars<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"> Lithium Price still cheaper then in the 1980s and 1990s - Just</span></span></h2>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Lithium and its compounds have several industrial applications, including heat-resistant glass and ceramics, high strength-to-weight alloys used in aircraft, lithium batteries and lithium-ion batteries. The end-use markets for Lithium and its compounds are estimated to be: ceramics and glass, 31%; batteries, 23%; lubricating greases,</span> 9%; air treatment, 6%; primary aluminium production, 6%; continuous casting, 4%; rubber and thermoplastics, 4%; pharmaceuticals, 2%; and other uses, 15% (Ref: <b><a href="http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs/" target="_blank">US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2011</a></b>). With the ever increasing use and demand for high performance lithium and lithium-ion batteries, in a range of applications from laptops and mobile phones to electric cars, this is a very important element to examine. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">The estimated annual average lithium price data came from</span><span style="font-size: small;"> the <b><a href="http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/" target="_blank">US Geological Survey</a></b>. The US Geological Survey used lithium carbonate as a proxy to estimate the price for lithium, as lithium carbonate is a good estimator of its price due to the large quantity and importance of this <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">compound compared to other lithium compounds.</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">The historical UK Pound to US Dollar exchange rate data came from Lawrence H. Officer, "Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate From 1791," MeasuringWorth, 2011 at <b><a href="http://www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/" target="_blank">www.measuringworth.com</a></b>. <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"> The </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">prices were adjusted for inflation by converting the nominal price into the equivalent in 2010 US Dollars and 2010 GP Pounds Stirling. The US inflation data came from the historical CPI from the</span> </span><b style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/community_education/teacher/calc/hist1800.cfm%20" target="_blank">US Department of Labor</a></b></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">. <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">For the UK inflatio</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">n the data came from </span></span></span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;">Dominic Webb (2006) "</span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b><a href="http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp2006/rp06-009.pdf" target="_blank">Inflation: the Value of the Pound 1750-2005</a></b></span></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">" </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">Economic Policy and Statistics Section, Research Paper 06/09, House of Commons Library, UK</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;">. </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">From this you get the following results shown in the graph below.</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSYpzdaf-BHziDJdk59OcLIQM6NN9ScA7Ov-XPLx_bjI6Xcx7_G7X5RBoXlcV5hu4WRoSktBANxLSOA5Jmj4MNScHegWT6q_i_9bmMnluL1EHTtAXwWaxiVhEbfpkirHYxjNChZPQlybrM/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Lithium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="graph showing the historic price of lithium carbonate and the inflation adjusted lithium carbonater price since 1950 to 2011 in Pounds Sterling and Dollars" border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSYpzdaf-BHziDJdk59OcLIQM6NN9ScA7Ov-XPLx_bjI6Xcx7_G7X5RBoXlcV5hu4WRoSktBANxLSOA5Jmj4MNScHegWT6q_i_9bmMnluL1EHTtAXwWaxiVhEbfpkirHYxjNChZPQlybrM/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Lithium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" title="Chart of the Historical Annual Average and Inflation Adjusted Lithium Carbonate Price since 1952 in US Dollars and UK Pounds" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>H<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">istorical Annual Average and Inflation Adjusted Lithium </span></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><b>Carbonate</b></span></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b> </b></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>Price since 1952 in US Dollars and UK Pounds</b></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;">The doted lines are the unadjusted nominal annual average lithium carbonate price, and the sold lines are the inflation adjusted lithium carbonate price. The first thing that becomes obvious is that the unadjusted lithium carbonate piece bottomed in the mid to late 1960s, in both UK Pounds and US Dollars at around £350 and $970 per metric ton respectively. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">However when you examine the inflation adjusted lithium carbonate price you observe that it crashed in 2000 a reached an all-time low in 2005 in both GB Pounds and US Dollars at around £930 and $1,30 per metric ton respectively. Since them the price has risen by 2009 to approximately £3,000 and $4,600 per metric ton respectively. This trend can be observed more easily in the chart below, which shows only the inflation adjusted lithium carbonate price. </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvzClqZmoiFnpiulQPgdQLwnAGtsdmmfOWLHLRlqJ2sboNxNTOfD2phHBN4odTPWp_SdQFMHiJyBqNRv6de1yRMiA32TO76t8i_X-EMgoktB4rAR9_YA8IDGTvequ8rm_jP5uejxob13cV/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Lithium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+v2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Graph showing the inflation adjusted price of lithium carbonate since 1950 and clearly shows that it is almost as cheap as it has ever been." border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvzClqZmoiFnpiulQPgdQLwnAGtsdmmfOWLHLRlqJ2sboNxNTOfD2phHBN4odTPWp_SdQFMHiJyBqNRv6de1yRMiA32TO76t8i_X-EMgoktB4rAR9_YA8IDGTvequ8rm_jP5uejxob13cV/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Lithium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+v2.jpg" title="Chart of the Inflation Adjusted Lithium Carbonate Price since 1952 in US Dollars and Pounds Sterling" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>Inflation Adjusted Lithium </b><b>Carbonate</b></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b> </b></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>Price since 1952 in US Dollars and Pounds Sterling</b></span></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">The second thing that you observe is that the US Dollar price of lithium carbonate was approximately constant from 1975 till the mid 1980s. </span><span style="font-size: small;">Using the stability in the price as a baseline the inflation adjusted lithium carbonate price in UK Pounds and US Dollars were indexed from price in 1975 and this is shown below.</span></span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBcS9rErQyJw-KRoUOPA6rUladvRGyrb30rsp7O0_DfzSwJxofZGVslJZJvEsj3u43SbEndPicCmofGAFRGjdhhrd7T9atUzWAy2EiizZI2VF90oH7mZbo-M1GAQI50Cmbezf0eI_lL1f0/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Lithium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Graph showing the inflation adjusted price of lithium carbonate indexed to the price in1975 and it clearly shows that it is almost as cheap as it has ever been since 1950." border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBcS9rErQyJw-KRoUOPA6rUladvRGyrb30rsp7O0_DfzSwJxofZGVslJZJvEsj3u43SbEndPicCmofGAFRGjdhhrd7T9atUzWAy2EiizZI2VF90oH7mZbo-M1GAQI50Cmbezf0eI_lL1f0/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Lithium+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" title="Chart of the Historical Inflation Adjusted Lithium Carbonate Price since 1952 in US Dollars and GB Pounds, Indexed to 1975" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>Historical Inflation Adjusted Lithium </b></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b>Carbonate</b></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><b> Price since 1952 in US Dollars and GB Pounds, Indexed to 1975</b></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;">I<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">t is also interesting to note the compounded rate of change for the inflation adjusted lithium carbonate prices index in US Dollars and GB Pounds, tracked each other pretty closely. Although there is much greater volatility in the price in UK Pounds due to the exchange rate volatility in the late 1970s and early 1980s. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">The indexed price data clearly displays that since the late 1960s the inflation adjusted lithium carbonate prices has been pretty constant until the crash in 2000. The price only dropped to approximately 25% of the late 1970s and early 1980s price. Additionally the rapid price rise since 2006 has taken the price to about 65% of that in the late 1970s and early 1980s. So from a historical perspective the 2009 is significantly off the inflation adjusted prices of the early 1960s and before and the relatively stable price from 1970s till 2000.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Written by <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey. Join on Google+</a></span><span style="font-size: small;">.</span></div>
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InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-9408225187504014642011-12-08T22:48:00.004+00:002013-07-07T20:29:01.627+01:00Inflation Adjusted Historic Silver Price - Pounds Sterling and US Dollars<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">Every day you hear about Gold or the price of Gold mentioned. Occasionally you see a chart of the historical price or if you are really lucky, the historical inflation adjusted Gold price (almost always in US Dollars). A couple of months ago I calculated and posted the historical and inflation adjusted Gold price in Pounds Sterling and US Dollars since 1900 </span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> (see here</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">: </span></span><b><a href="http://inflationmonkey.blogspot.com/2011/09/updated-inflation-adjusted-gold-price.html%20%20%20%20">Updated Inflation Adjusted Gold Price - US Dollars and UK Pounds<span style="color: black;"></span></a></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">). Now I will show the both the historic Silver price and historical inflation adjusted Silver price in US Dollars and GB Pounds.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">The annual average Silver price data came from </span><span style="font-size: small;"><b><a href="http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalsilver.html">www.kitco.com</a></b> and it went back to 1792. The Historical UK Pound to US Dollar exchange rate data came from Lawrence H. Officer, "Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate From 1791," MeasuringWorth, 2011 at <b><a href="http://www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/">www.measuringworth.com/exchangepound/</a></b>. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">The prices were adjusted for inflation by converting the nominal price into the equivalent in 2010 US Dollars and 2010 GP Pounds Stirling. The US inflation data came from the historical CPI from the <b><a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/community_education/teacher/calc/hist1800.cfm" style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" target="_blank">US Department of Labor</a></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">. The UK inflation the data came from </span></span></span><span style="font-family: Arial;">Dominic Webb (2006)</span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">"</span><b><a href="http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp2006/rp06-009.pdf" style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" target="_blank">Inflation: the Value of the Pound 1750-2005</a></b><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">"</span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"> Economic Policy and Statistics Section, Research Paper </span></span>06/09,<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"> House of Commons Library, UK. </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">From this you get the following results shown in the graph below.</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"> </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvOWuVFwRvC9GQK188bSqMd4ZQd3jteSsOE3CNADNAg1Uj99Y8I9vQAvG_MI95Czc1nSgSaw89rAuJR1jYaJXUxAl25YpgLwNdvui88ar79YlUuYqAkHrrPon_Em1JPHPZtnnFQu9-qpW8/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Silver+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart showing the historic price of silver and the inflation adjusted silver price since 1792 to 2010 in Pounds Sterling and Dollars " border="0" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvOWuVFwRvC9GQK188bSqMd4ZQd3jteSsOE3CNADNAg1Uj99Y8I9vQAvG_MI95Czc1nSgSaw89rAuJR1jYaJXUxAl25YpgLwNdvui88ar79YlUuYqAkHrrPon_Em1JPHPZtnnFQu9-qpW8/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Silver+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds.jpg" title="Chart of the Historical Annual Average and Inflation Adjusted Silver Price Since 1792 in US Dollars and GB Pounds" width="640" /></a></span></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Historical Annual Average and Inflation Adjusted Silver Price Since 1792 in US Dollars and GB Pounds</b></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;">The doted lines are the unadjusted annual average Silver price, and the sold lines are the inflation adjusted Silver price. The first thing that becomes obvious is that the unadjusted Silver piece bottomed in the 1930s, in both UK Pounds and US Dollars at £0.07 and $0.25 per <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troy_ounce" target="_blank">troy ounce</a> respectively. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">However when you examine the inflation adjusted Silver price you observe that it has bottom at around the same price (approximately £4 and $4 in 2010 value) at the beginning of the each of the following decades, 1930s, 1940, 1990s and 2000s. In fact, for much of the </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">20<sup>th</sup> </span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">century (from the 1920s to mid 1960s and from the early 1990s until the mid 2000s) the inflation adjusted Silver price has been very low compare to the long term historic average, (which was approximately £15 and $17 in 2010 value). Below is the inflation adjusted Silver price in UK Pounds and US Dollars indexed back to 1800</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">. </span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1CJ6dzc-LBhHJBwUo71EiCZ_SDvrAv_AFJjfqlYgNA8MUYmgXOUcAyJZyDQ4w38Zh25q-c71PUudlmLZYS3hG031KYGYKt6-Phlis0-ujNGAqyBXIgiZy-0IKcxgIqWb6Ug0l-F_WSi4U/s1600/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Silver+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Graph showing the index inflation adjusted silver price is cheaper than it was from the 1810 till 1890's" border="0" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1CJ6dzc-LBhHJBwUo71EiCZ_SDvrAv_AFJjfqlYgNA8MUYmgXOUcAyJZyDQ4w38Zh25q-c71PUudlmLZYS3hG031KYGYKt6-Phlis0-ujNGAqyBXIgiZy-0IKcxgIqWb6Ug0l-F_WSi4U/s640/Historical+Inflation+Adjusted+Silver+Price+in+Dollars+and+Pounds+Index.jpg" title="Graph of the Historical Inflation Adjusted Silver Price Since 1792 in US Dollars and GB Pounds, Indexed to 1800" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Historical Inflation Adjusted Silver Price Since 1792 in US Dollars and GB Pounds, Indexed to 1800</b></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;">The second thing that you observe is that the average Silver price in 2010 is now above the long term inflation adjusted historical average. The price that year was comparable to the price from the mid 1890s until the 1920s. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">It is also interesting to note the compounded rate of change for the inflation adjusted Silver prices index in US Dollars and GB Pounds, tracked each other pretty closely for the majority of the 20<sup>th</sup> Century. However before then, there was a sustained period of time since the 1820s when inflation adjusted Silver price indexed to 1800 was significantly larger in Dollars than Pounds?</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Written by <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey. Join on Google+</a></span><span style="font-size: small;">.</span><br />
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InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-23059351533975062922011-10-29T22:18:00.003+01:002012-04-24T20:27:39.522+01:00Inflation Adjusted Oil Price since 1986 - UK Pounds<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;">From reading this Septembers Inflation report from the Office of National Statistic today, one of the sectors highlighted as a big culprit for that month’s large increase in inflation, were fuel and energy. I regularly see the historical oil price and have often wondered what the historic price was in UK Pounds or what it was when adjusted for UK inflation. So I thought I would investigate. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Using the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price since 1986, from US Energy Information Administration, (<b><a href="http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.cfm#prices">www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.cfm#prices</a></b>) and using the daily UK £ to US $ exchange rate from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (<b><a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/Hist/">www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/Hist/</a></b>) to convert it into Pounds Sterling per barrel. The affect of UK inflation was adjusted for by using the Retail Prices Index (RPI) all items, from the UK Office of National Statistics for the UK inflation (<b><a href="http://www.ons.gov.uk/">www.ons.gov.uk</a></b>). The first two chat shows the daily US Dollar to UK Pound exchange rate and the WTI Oil price in US Dollars and UK Pounds. </span></div>
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<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Daily </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: small;">West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price since 1986 in US Dollars and UK pounds</span></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiHuM1NE540vK7nqmjLnoDz-fWp_drMqDwTTdCrvF0hU_2R0UFpAHOA68xxLZ2uhyUpsXDJO2P1wb9sZcJMlIs-dKM6HvBBkHrY2V4lErOsTDqQ71Cg5KzrTXELyLFrrw1qWQwDdngH7cW/s1600/US+UK+exchange+rate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiHuM1NE540vK7nqmjLnoDz-fWp_drMqDwTTdCrvF0hU_2R0UFpAHOA68xxLZ2uhyUpsXDJO2P1wb9sZcJMlIs-dKM6HvBBkHrY2V4lErOsTDqQ71Cg5KzrTXELyLFrrw1qWQwDdngH7cW/s640/US+UK+exchange+rate.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">It can be seen that the oil price has been pretty volatile in recent years, both in US Dollars and Pound Sterling. Furthermore the US Dollar to UK Pound exchange rate has been fairly volatile since 1986 and varied from 1.4 to 2.2 US $ to a the UK Pound. When priced in UK Pounds the oil peaked in 2008 at around £68 per barrel and this price was matched again in April 2011. When the oil priced peaked in Dollars in 2008, it was around $135 per barrel. This price has not been matched the rally at the beginning of 2011, where it reached around $110 per barrel. So in the UK oil is very close to the price peak in 2008 and its all down to the falling value of the <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">UK Pound compared to the US Dollar. </span></span><span style="font-family: Arial;">Below is the inflation adjusted historical WTI crude oil spot price in Pounds Sterling.</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjs4BVaL8SIk9hAHh-sT0lpb_3Vtx2bXnZM2Zb8Mk-TVnBXML8kKk-sT_xeUGgbR85cqTUOXhctF1Oeq-Nk9DTI_qF-dDJbLMYeF5I9AvF2KzGNpI_Swfz8Klq_YuYBd18qJWqid_pzgHK/s1600/Inflation+Adjusted+WTI+Oil+Price+1986.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjs4BVaL8SIk9hAHh-sT0lpb_3Vtx2bXnZM2Zb8Mk-TVnBXML8kKk-sT_xeUGgbR85cqTUOXhctF1Oeq-Nk9DTI_qF-dDJbLMYeF5I9AvF2KzGNpI_Swfz8Klq_YuYBd18qJWqid_pzgHK/s640/Inflation+Adjusted+WTI+Oil+Price+1986.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Inflation adjusted historical WTI crude oil spot price in Pounds Sterling since 1986 </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">The dark blue line is the unadjusted daily spot price converted into UK Pound at that day’s exchange rate. The pink line is the oil price adjusted to account for UK inflation (RPI). As it can be seen, the present price in Pounds pretty much where it was in mid 2010 and end of 2005. The end of 2005 was an interesting time in the UK, as it was the second time that the oil refineries where being blockades by lorry drivers (<b><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2005/sep/13/politics.oil">www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2005/sep/13/politics.oil</a></b>). The other time was in late 2000 when the same thing happened (<b><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/920679.stm">news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/920679.stm</a></b>). The interesting thing to note is that on both of those occasions the oil price in Pounds Sterling was above £50 per barrel. It looks like the last 26 years of cheap oil in Pounds is well and truly over.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Written by <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey. Join on Google+</a></span><span style="font-size: small;">.</span></div>
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</div>InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-10261985241307097852011-10-01T11:56:00.009+01:002013-07-07T20:30:51.077+01:00Have UK Mortgages ever been cheaper?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: small;">I was reading an interesting news article on <b><a href="http://www.moneyobserver.com/comment/reply/4273">www.moneyobserver.com</a></b> titled <b>“Mortgages have never been cheaper”</b>. They talked about the fall in mortgage interest rates and how this equates to mortgages never being cheaper. Although that is correct, as consumer what really maters tome in the monthly mortgages pay (which is a function of the interest rate and the total loan value). Over the last decade as mortgage interest rates came down, the total loan value increased. So I though that I would investigate the historic mortgage interest payments against Inflation (UK RPI) and wages. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">Using the data from the Office of National Statistics, available from the guys over at <b><a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/">www.InflationaryPressure.com</a></b> for their charts, we see the following. </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir6LFx5Ocjv3Au5ryJnKMiUmsU_CI1tv-WCP9W1cWExFJ7bSGMxPLZF2wfN9nHZoG1ZH3ADZ0XfTnZeIb_pcp7J4YzL-x28xZ7Qp80MFpLF7EF2g5Hvf3TWGhYNFO9_8aufktQKL6di9tw/s1600/Mortgage+Interest+Payment+index+vs+Wages.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart of the UK average wage growth and the index of average UK mortgage interest payment since 1987 to 2011 showing that by 2009 mortgage interest payments had drop by over 40% since the peak in 2008 and were now comparable to 2001." border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir6LFx5Ocjv3Au5ryJnKMiUmsU_CI1tv-WCP9W1cWExFJ7bSGMxPLZF2wfN9nHZoG1ZH3ADZ0XfTnZeIb_pcp7J4YzL-x28xZ7Qp80MFpLF7EF2g5Hvf3TWGhYNFO9_8aufktQKL6di9tw/s640/Mortgage+Interest+Payment+index+vs+Wages.jpg" title="Graph of UK Mortgage Interest Payment vs. Average Wages from www.inflationarypressure.com" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/customchart1987/Graph%20of%20price%20of%20Average%20Earnings%20Index%20against%20Mortgage%20Interest%20Payments%20showing%20inflation.html" target="_blank">UK Mortgage Interest Payment vs. Average Wages</a>.</b> From: <a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/" target="_blank">www.InflarionaryPressure.com</a><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWViFAPDsa3emE5b0NhyoVNnEJuYewik3NpbiNJXRN6fmlcwglvUeBIjFZFLUiecfWK8fjIqwBQLkkzFs9PCCDDPurYggrCHwDspKXDAEKTnB2tgb7C9lapetSZBowV2dEBUXQEOBK-rzt/s1600/Mortgage+Interest+Payment+index+vs+RPI.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart presenting the index of the average UK mortgage interest payment since and the retail price index RPI since 1987 to 2011 showing that the most of the time the mortgage interest payment has grown faster than inflation. However by 2009 mortgage interest payments had dropped by over 40 per cent and have increased in line with inflation ever since. " border="0" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWViFAPDsa3emE5b0NhyoVNnEJuYewik3NpbiNJXRN6fmlcwglvUeBIjFZFLUiecfWK8fjIqwBQLkkzFs9PCCDDPurYggrCHwDspKXDAEKTnB2tgb7C9lapetSZBowV2dEBUXQEOBK-rzt/s640/Mortgage+Interest+Payment+index+vs+RPI.jpg" title="Graph of UK Mortgage Interest Payment against the retail price index RPI since 1987 from www.inflationarypressure.com" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/customchart1987/Graph%20of%20price%20of%20RPI%20All%20Items%20against%20Mortgage%20Interest%20Payments%20showing%20inflation.html">UK Mortgage Interest Payment vs. PRI</a>.</b> From: <a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/" target="_blank">www.InflationaryPressure.com</a><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1QaiKzij_BKJ4h7MuDtSeKH1MpHY9G2FVRnt0nQ5n_Y-iV07R9ipc7w9nn2aZXUhzpyphOFiEyLyyqnjndI78wDZbfq8b0Y2YiPWV_N2TM91axTTczqtV-8lHUmKkUDpT82iyzVfAfEH1/s1600/Mortgage+Interest+Payment+index+vs+House+Price+IndexI.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart presenting the index of the average UK mortgage interest payment since and the average UK house prices RPI since 1987 to 2011 showing that there is very little correlation between them. " border="0" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1QaiKzij_BKJ4h7MuDtSeKH1MpHY9G2FVRnt0nQ5n_Y-iV07R9ipc7w9nn2aZXUhzpyphOFiEyLyyqnjndI78wDZbfq8b0Y2YiPWV_N2TM91axTTczqtV-8lHUmKkUDpT82iyzVfAfEH1/s640/Mortgage+Interest+Payment+index+vs+House+Price+IndexI.jpg" title="Graph of UK Mortgage Interest Payment against Average UK House Prices from www.inflationarypressure.com" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/customchart1987/Graph%20of%20price%20of%20House%20Prices%20against%20Mortgage%20Interest%20Payments%20showing%20inflation.html" target="_blank">UK Mortgage Interest Payment vs. Average House Prices</a>.</b> From: <a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/" target="_blank">www.InflationaryPressure.com</a> </td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Presently the average mortgages interest payment has fallen below average wages, meaning that they are cheap historically. However mortgages interest payment has been very volatile over the past 24 years. Interestingly average wages index is currently around the middle of the extreme highs and lows in the mortgages interest payment index! Then you compare the mortgages interest payment against RPI you observe that it is now equal to RPI. Historically you observe that, uncannily the lows in the mortgages interest payment index equal RPI since 1987.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">However when we examine the house price index against the average mortgages interest payment index you notice that they are not collated. This indicates that something else is the driving force for house price growth. As we are now finding out, house prices are driven prominently by the amount of money available to be lent out as mortgages.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Written by <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey. Join on Google+</a></span><span style="font-size: small;">.</span></div>
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InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-32733899542824435682011-09-30T08:20:00.010+01:002012-10-27T22:35:33.434+01:00UK Inflation Rate – The Affect of Compounding<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: small;">We have all see the annual % change charts for inflation (both RPI and CPI in the UK), just like the one shown below. But have you ever really considered what those small differences between the % change in CPI and RPI means over the long term? </span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_1038033158" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart showing the annual per cent change in the retail price index RPI and consumer price index CPI from 2000 to 2011" border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtW9s1nlU184auxX4UifixLE-0Di6I3h-bfP00Ejuq-EhiE3mlMapTd6gPKJmvCKGYqyEDvAV_b5OVF07J4mFof4bgI6RvZdGig6y7n1_GicR_hjWuXFhHjSsE5BSsHd4TpXxFCfI1c8SP/s400/Inflation+per+cent+200-2011.jpg" title="Chart of retail price index RPI and consumer price index CPI from 2000 to 2011 from the BBC" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">From <b><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10612209%20">http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10612209 </a></b></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">Do you realise that over 10 to 20 year the compounded effect of those differences in the % change reported for RPI compared to CPI make a very big difference. The easiest method to show this effect is to compare the RPI and CPI indexes. An index will clearly shows the compounded change over time from the base year. </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">The guys over at <a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/"><b>www.inflationarypressure.com</b></a> </span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;">have added a number of new charts and one in particular caught my eye. This chart plotted the RPI index vs. CPI index since 1987 (shown below). </span><span style="font-family: Arial;"></span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-cWehJDOPEcR9OZlQX7LcwVuhJ0-yNNLGg1MRLHH4lJk2Y9ft2cxsfdn-nTzbhZ6N-GzmISbDC_8MvrtMPwrZRmoYl0261aVZLcF4RGfOuY8dy0hUV00lqjcJntNtnT8hc9XvYoticYJK/s1600/RPI+vs+CPI.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Chart of the retail price index RPI and consumer price index CPI since 1987 showing the effect of compound annual per cent changes between them. The chart shows that RPI has increased 2.4 time s since 197 compared to 2 times for CPI. " border="0" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-cWehJDOPEcR9OZlQX7LcwVuhJ0-yNNLGg1MRLHH4lJk2Y9ft2cxsfdn-nTzbhZ6N-GzmISbDC_8MvrtMPwrZRmoYl0261aVZLcF4RGfOuY8dy0hUV00lqjcJntNtnT8hc9XvYoticYJK/s640/RPI+vs+CPI.jpg" title="Chart of the retail price index RPI and consumer price index CPI since 1987 from www.inflationarypressure.com" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/customchart1987/Graph%20of%20price%20of%20RPI%20All%20Items%20against%20CPI%20All%20Items%20showing%20inflation.html" target="_blank">Historical RPI and CPI index data since 1987</a>. Both index to January 1987 = 100. </b><br />
<b>From: </b><a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/" target="_blank"><b>www.inflationarypressure.com</b></a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;">This clearly illustrated the affect of compounding all those small % differences between CPI and RPI. Over 24 year the RPI index has rose by factor of 2.4 whereas the CPi index has increased only by a factor of 2.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Written by <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey. Join on Google+</a></span><span style="font-size: small;">.</span></div>
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InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-55064384440968905982011-09-29T22:44:00.009+01:002013-07-07T20:28:38.378+01:00Updated Inflation Adjusted Gold Price - US Dollars and UK Pounds<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: small;">Have recently found price inflation estimates for the UK and US back to 1900. So I thought that I would extend the inflation adjusted historic gold price in UK Pounds and US Dollars from <b><a href="http://inflationmonkey.blogspot.com/2011/09/inflation-adjusted-historic-gold-price.html" target="_blank">my original blog on the historical price of Gold</a></b>, all the way back to 1900. Below are the historic annual average inflation adjusted gold price in US Dollar and GB Pounds: </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> Sources: Gold <b><a href="http://www.gold.org/investment/statistics/price">World Gold Council</a></b><span style="color: black;">, </span>US inflation <b><a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/community_education/teacher/calc/hist1800.cfm">Consumer Price Index (Estimate) 1800-2008</a></b>, </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> UK inflation <b><a href="http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons/lib/research/rp2003/rp03-082.pdf" target="_blank">Inflation: the Value of the Pound 1750-2002</a></b>.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">The doted lines are the unadjusted annual average gold price, and the sold lines are the inflation adjusted gold price. The extended time allows us to examine the long running average inflation adjusted gold price. The first thing that becomes obvious is that the piece gold bottomed out at during the late 1990’s was pretty close to the inflation adjusted price in the 1920’s, 1950’s and 1960’s for both $’s and £’s.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">The second thing that you notice is that in the inflation adjusted gold price was from 1900-1915 and in the 1930’s were very close to that the early 1990’s. The price at these times was very close the long running inflation adjusted average of US $483 per <a href="http://www.platinum.matthey.com/media-room/frequently-asked-questions/what-is-a-troy-ounce/" target="_blank">troy ounce</a> and UK £344 per troy oz. Below is inflation adjusted gold price index at 1948 = 100 (the same baseline used in the previous blog entry). </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUATv3YMfV1K3tise1FSN-Y3aL2rAzRnYSxH8wS2_bwqZcqS2M8sGuyhrp0GIasAPpB-DcxqT6H32yIFI-ezboMw5b1JeQWL1qp4hpb7I0cUoMg_tQWRTx_xtHDgGalPPSlUXiN_AHgdri/s1600/Inflation+Adjusted+Gold+Price+Index+1948.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUATv3YMfV1K3tise1FSN-Y3aL2rAzRnYSxH8wS2_bwqZcqS2M8sGuyhrp0GIasAPpB-DcxqT6H32yIFI-ezboMw5b1JeQWL1qp4hpb7I0cUoMg_tQWRTx_xtHDgGalPPSlUXiN_AHgdri/s640/Inflation+Adjusted+Gold+Price+Index+1948.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Here you can see that there was a sudden blip in the inflation adjusted price of price of gold in UK £. This was a bad economic period for the United Kingdom and the Pound Sterling was devalued in 1949. So this is probably not the best time period to index to inflation adjusted gold price to. Further examination of the first chart reveals that the 1900’s has a relatively stable inflation adjusted gold price in both Dollars and Pounds. So the year 1900 was chased as the base to index the inflation adjusted gold prices to and the results are shown below: </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2k8TfLpVvV6J4IYwKA3CM9suVABv79M3Ka4gLId9xZDLIG_1znTmuBbRNe08Dn8fU-lYZByByV4pQWpI8ilRdTbaZdDIouDaOlgQBXJaYoEiHMY5Wbba1Ft1m_7J9bXsZe4ss1ASFF7SL/s1600/Inflation+Adjusted+Gold+Price+Index+1900.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2k8TfLpVvV6J4IYwKA3CM9suVABv79M3Ka4gLId9xZDLIG_1znTmuBbRNe08Dn8fU-lYZByByV4pQWpI8ilRdTbaZdDIouDaOlgQBXJaYoEiHMY5Wbba1Ft1m_7J9bXsZe4ss1ASFF7SL/s640/Inflation+Adjusted+Gold+Price+Index+1900.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">It is interesting to note the compounded rate of change for the inflation adjusted gold prices in Dollars and Pounds tracked each other very closely for the majority of the 20<sup>th</sup> Century. There were a few periods when the inflation adjusted gold price index in Pounds was substantially above the Dollar </span><span style="font-size: small;">equivalent</span><span style="font-size: small;">. The longest period was from the late 1940’ until 1970. The other times were for a few years in the early 1970’s and early 1980’.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Written by <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey. Join on Google+</a></span><span style="font-size: small;">.</span></div>
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InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-64724127254428605752011-09-28T22:34:00.013+01:002012-04-24T20:25:14.165+01:00Inflation Adjusted Historic Gold Price - US Dollars and UK Pounds<div style="text-align: left;">
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<span style="font-size: small;">You may have often heard it banded around over the last couple of years that Gold is an "Inflation Hedge" against unforeseen disasters since physical gold is one of the few investments that is not simultaneously an asset and someone else's liability. In other words as it’s a real asset, where the total quantity can’t easily be altered, it keeps its true purchasing power. Unlike paper money which can be magic out of thin air (and is at this very moment). </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">It has often be quoted that a pair offhand crafted quality sandals during the Roman Empire cost an half an ounce of gold, which is very similar to the price of ladies must have designer shoes today, coincidence? With all the talk about the inflation adjusted price (also called the real price) of gold reaching levels we haven't seen since the 1980 peak. I thought that I would investigate the subject from a UK inflation hedge perspective. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">As gold like all commodities are traded in US Dollars. So for any non US investor it immediately apparent whether it’s value has really increased decreases or stayed the same in your local terms. The average price of a <b><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troy_ounce">troy ounce</a></b> (which is equal to 31.1034768 grams and 1.09714 avoirdupois / imperial ounces) in 2010 was US $1,224 and GB £792. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">The annual average price of gold for most major currencies is published by the World Gold Council at <b><a href="http://www.gold.org/investment/statistics/prices">www.gold.org/investment/statistics/prices</a></b>. </span><span style="font-size: small;">Taking this data and adjusting it for the affect of inflation by converting the price equitant in 2010 US Dollars and 2010 GP Pounds Stirling </span><span style="font-size: small;">you get the results shown in the graph below (using the All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) from the US Department Of Labor for the US inflation and the Retail Prices Index (RPI) all items, from the UK Office of National Statistics for the UK inflation). </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">The doted lines are the unadjusted annual average gold price, and the sold lines are the inflation adjusted gold price. The first thing that becomes obvious is that the piece gold bottomed out at during the late 1990’s was pretty close to the inflation adjusted price in the 1950’s and 1960’s for both $’s and £’s. The second thing that you notices is that in the 1950’s and 1960’s the gold prices was virtually the same in Dollars and Pounds (parity), until the early 1970’s, where upon they diverged. From that time onwards the Pound value is always lower than the Dollar value. These observations can be seen easier when the inflation adjusted gold price is index from 1950, as illustrated in the in chart below. </span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7_hLErK7vwbjie1gHIGIwZVLi5Gqv1pFnafJO30T9a47TQmfBxlXqIYd4DRI-fS1OVG43ZK8KR7s4-24C_Lo3iyrzf1U55xta4CfC5zUmdIWRDY-ZW_b4uEeXucXmgepiUGAlNx7mNDhw/s1600/Inflation+Adjusted+Gold+Price+Index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7_hLErK7vwbjie1gHIGIwZVLi5Gqv1pFnafJO30T9a47TQmfBxlXqIYd4DRI-fS1OVG43ZK8KR7s4-24C_Lo3iyrzf1U55xta4CfC5zUmdIWRDY-ZW_b4uEeXucXmgepiUGAlNx7mNDhw/s640/Inflation+Adjusted+Gold+Price+Index.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Inflation Adjusted Gold Price in GB Pounds and US Dollars. Indexed from1948.</b></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;">As indexed data highlights the compounded yearly changes really well, those observations now become very clear. The next question that springs to mind is why did the inflation adjusted price of gold start off at parity in Dollars and Pounds and then why did it diverge? It must be remembered that the exchange rate between the £ and $ use to be much greater then it is at present (£1 ~ $1.60). </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Food for thought don’t you thing? I’ve have to see is I can find UK inflation rate date back to the 1900’s, too see what the inflation adjusted gold price was in Pounds back during the 1920’s and 1930’s. The last big credit boom and bust that everyone keep refereeing to!</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Written by <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey. Join on Google+</a></span><span style="font-size: small;">.</span></div>
<br /></div>InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7258771869441328303.post-64710259327588957432011-09-15T23:37:00.009+01:002012-04-24T20:26:14.338+01:00So What do the Inflation Numbers Really Mean?<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;">Its the middle of the month and TV news reports are all about price increases. So it must mean that the official UK inflation figures for the previous month have been released. You see a fancy chart from the Office of National Statistics showing CPI yearly percent changes over the last 18 months (<i>as shown by the chart below</i>):</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPGZzbUawQV9pr-wtVpQcol5A2at55vOOxqrhR_xAV5BD7yPhU6_eT4T8C_Hsvr1JDZiYbNCm-1yqOXIoNTJnJxkysk3cPQKrnFMjIdr_poVZ2rXr2XLN7Gq8YrzxspWpnDtlQlTry6UkQ/s1600/Aug+2011+CPI-RPI.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPGZzbUawQV9pr-wtVpQcol5A2at55vOOxqrhR_xAV5BD7yPhU6_eT4T8C_Hsvr1JDZiYbNCm-1yqOXIoNTJnJxkysk3cPQKrnFMjIdr_poVZ2rXr2XLN7Gq8YrzxspWpnDtlQlTry6UkQ/s320/Aug+2011+CPI-RPI.jpg" width="315" /></a></td></tr>
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From the ONS Statistical Bulletin - Consumer Price Indices August 2011, </div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">But what does that really mean to me in my everyday life? Wha</span><span style="font-size: small;">ts the context, how is the inflation rate to wages? How have prices change over the years? Over the long term are things cheap, but now increasing fast or what? And where do you find that sort of information, particularly for UK data and not just US data? </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Well, having t</span><span style="font-size: small;">rawled through the internet over the years i have come across the odd nugget of information on inflation adjusted data or charts for the odd commodity like corn or oil. There are often interesting and thought provoking, but not that relevant to me as its always US data in $ (<i>a good example is the chart below</i>):</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtGlh58OWWFiXkUuZgObV3EDRVzTWVQZws4uoNMk0WPuir7JWnetJkGkzJSO2mFQZCfRlBIJg_fApVDFKfOUBLwD2YIxBvSEStH0oEOk3tMEgM8QT5tVYdgfMf42KZUM4pvS-iXZWCShs7/s1600/Inflation_Adjusted_Corn_sm.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtGlh58OWWFiXkUuZgObV3EDRVzTWVQZws4uoNMk0WPuir7JWnetJkGkzJSO2mFQZCfRlBIJg_fApVDFKfOUBLwD2YIxBvSEStH0oEOk3tMEgM8QT5tVYdgfMf42KZUM4pvS-iXZWCShs7/s1600/Inflation_Adjusted_Corn_sm.gif" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; text-align: center;"><a href="http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Articles/Corn_Inflation.asp">US Inflation Adjusted Price of Corn in US Dollars</a></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"> </td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;">However a new website has just come on-line the other week with UK inflation data since 1987 (<a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/">www.inflationarypressure.com</a>). They have the ONS inflation data for 50 everyday items and average wages in one single location. But even better than that, it all index to the same point in time making it straight forward to start analyzing the charts straight away. Much easier than hunting around on the ONS website for hours, finding a bit here and a bit there and having to piece it all together. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Here is one of the interesting things I found out that i didn't know before. The inflation report for August 2011 in the UK, reported that the rising cost of energy prices were one of the causes to the increasing inflationary pressure on families finances.</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;">From the data and charts from <a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/">www.inflationarypressure.com</a> you get the chance to put price changes for electricity into context. When you comparer the average electricity and gas prices against average wages since 1987 you see an interesting trend. Electricity and gas prices flatlined from the early 1990’s to around 2006 (see the two charts below):</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP4gGoaX95aAZMZwHcwv12rNnSRZwRrT8JxAtNJJguPJ1kH9qvkugLXAADUMAPO2JutSE3HR7-45cjCoFIShgWjanbp8cc4SbL6cdhCmsCfI2FxE4CDhr8rYvOIWpGhdkK0NpvO_rlqQ_-/s1600/G-Bills+-+Electricity.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP4gGoaX95aAZMZwHcwv12rNnSRZwRrT8JxAtNJJguPJ1kH9qvkugLXAADUMAPO2JutSE3HR7-45cjCoFIShgWjanbp8cc4SbL6cdhCmsCfI2FxE4CDhr8rYvOIWpGhdkK0NpvO_rlqQ_-/s640/G-Bills+-+Electricity.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/customchart1987/Graph%20of%20price%20of%20Average%20Earnings%20Index%20against%20Electricity%20showing%20inflation.html" target="_blank">A chart illustrates how the price of electricy in the UK has changed against average salary from Jan 1987</a></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRzFje6nUvduZVkroyGDTb2XJw6BNRHeYZZn93gpFQxbGCIRI4WaUdDTA-2r4yrRxaE1ljgYbVniTF-EjSuSWVLBL5Yc2xQnnShMDj9B8MVwW_y66ewWz-88ZWONaM-2UpjhX4U0DIOy5M/s1600/G-Bills+-+Gas.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRzFje6nUvduZVkroyGDTb2XJw6BNRHeYZZn93gpFQxbGCIRI4WaUdDTA-2r4yrRxaE1ljgYbVniTF-EjSuSWVLBL5Yc2xQnnShMDj9B8MVwW_y66ewWz-88ZWONaM-2UpjhX4U0DIOy5M/s640/G-Bills+-+Gas.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.inflationarypressure.com/customchart1987/Graph%20of%20price%20of%20Average%20Earnings%20Index%20against%20Gas%20showing%20inflation.html" target="_blank">A graph illustrates how the price of natural gas in the UK has changed against average salary from Jan 1987</a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: small;">Therefore, when compared to wages, the long term the current price of gas is similar to 1987 and electricity is actually cheaper compared to1987. Is the real problem that we have become addicted to unusually cheap energy?</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">Written by <a href="https://plus.google.com/111136621494526432764" rel="author" target="_blank">Inflation Monkey. Join on Google+</a></span><span style="font-size: small;">.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;"> </span></div>InflationMonkeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16707145871173016619noreply@blogger.com0